Brazil Archive

China, Brazil manufacturing, US Construction Spending, coal

Seems a global thing: No recovery here: Another price reversal: GC Newcastle coal futures tumbled by over 30% to $150 per metric ton, the lowest in three months, and are more than 40% below a record high of $269.5 hit on October 5th, as China stepped up policies to boost output ahead ...Read More

Euro area PMI, Japan pmi, Misc. global headlines

Tariff man, aka Agent Orange, doing a number on global economies… Just went negative: Services moved up some but the trend still looks down: Japan appearing to be collapsing as well: And these recent headlines: Argentina Leading Economic Index The economy of Argentina shrank 0.1 percent month-over-month in January 2019, following a ...Read More

Housing starts, High end weakness

Falling off, as previously discussed, particularly multi family, which had been the driver: Housing Starts Highlights Pulled down by a big drop in multi-family homes, housing starts fell a steep 11.0 percent in October to a 1.060 million annualized rate that is far below Econoday’s low estimate. Starts for multi-family homes, which ...Read More

Layoffs, Claims, Trade

Challenger Job-Cut Report Highlights In perhaps the first warning of serious trouble from the oil patch, Challenger’s layoff count starts off the year with an elevated reading, at 53,041 for the highest reading since February 2013 and the highest January reading since 2012. Readings in December and November were much lower, at ...Read More

Brazil

So just maybe the high rates are supporting the inflation? Brazil Central Bank Signals Further Increase in Interest Rates (WSJ) “Advances achieved in the fight against inflation…aren’t enough yet,” the bank’s monetary-policy committee said in minutes from last week’s meeting, when its policy rate, known as Selic, was raised to 12.25% from ...Read More

Brazil inflation

Maybe somehow the higher interest rates set by the CB support the higher rates of inflation? ;) Brazil’s Inflation Rises Even Amid Low Growth (WSJ) Brazil’s official IPCA consumer-price index rose 6.41% in 2014. The IPCA rose 5.91% in 2013. Annual inflation was driven up by an 8% increase in food prices and a ...Read More

mtg purch apps, adp

Weaker, and down 8% year over year, even with much lower rates. MBA Purchase Applications Highlights Mortgage application activity fell sharply in the 2 weeks to January 2, down 5.0 percent for purchase applications and down 12.0 percent for refinancing applications. The trend for purchase applications, which offers an indication on underlying ...Read More

OPEC leader vows not to cut oil output even if price hits $20

The Saudis never ‘cut production’ They just set price and let the world buy what it wants at their price. No one seems to know that. As no one ever asks if they are going to raise price. OPEC leader vows not to cut oil output even if price hits $20 “It ...Read More

Comments on Stanlely Fisher’s ‘Lessons from Crises, 1985-2014’

Lessons from Crises, 1985-2014 Stanley Fischer[1] It is both an honor and a pleasure to receive this years SIEPR Prize. Let me list the reasons. First, the prize, awarded for lifetime contributions to economic policy, was started by George Shultz. I got my start in serious policy work in 1984-85, as a ...Read More

Emerging market currencies

Seems no one is pointing out how this is all looking a lot like ‘catch up’ vs last year’s yen move? As previously discussed, the proactive yen move from under 80 to over 100 vs the dollar- a 30% or so pay cut for domestic workers in terms of prices of imports- ...Read More