Bonds Archive

Norway oil fund makes big move from bonds to stocks

Seems like this ‘quasi’ govt type of thing is often later shown to be behind ‘difficult to explain’ ‘liquidity driven’ equity moves. Norway oil fund makes big move from bonds to stocks By Richard Milne in Oslo April 29 (FT) — Norway’s oil fund has reduced its bond holdings to their lowest ...Read More

Professor Terzi on R and R reposted

Very good to see this here! However, so far the politics haven’t changed, so place your bets accordingly! Why the Reinhart-Rogoff paper was flawed right from the start By Andrea Terzi ...Read More

Reinhart-Rogoff data errors found!

If true, this is very bad: Researchers Finally Replicated Reinhart-Rogoff, and There Are Serious Problems. By Mike Konczal April 16 (Bloomberg) — In 2010, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff released a paper, “Growth in a Time of Debt.” Their “main result is that…median growth rates for countries with public debt over ...Read More

Wall of Shame

Wall of shame: High Debt Countries April 9 — Countries that let their debt loads get high risk losing control of their own fiscal sustainability, through an adverse feedback loop in which doubts by lenders lead to higher government bond rates, which in turn make debt problems more severe. ...Read More

The Stockman’s big swinging whip

The Man from Snowy River By Banjo Paterson So Clancy rode to wheel them — he was racing on the wing Where the best and boldest riders take their place, And he raced his stock-horse past them, and he made the ranges ring With the stockwhip, as he met them face to ...Read More

Zurich video

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JPY Market Color Mar/21/2013

Debt to GDP over 200% 0 rates for decades Strong currency Alarmingly low term structure of rates Recent yen weakness looking ‘fundamental’ as trade goes negative maybe until nukes are restarted and ‘replacement’ gas and oil imports go back to where they were. Trade going negative after initial yen weakening due to ...Read More

comments on Bass and Koll

Cooler Heads: The Rebuttal to Kyle Bass’s Japan Market Meltdown Scenario from JPMorgan’s Jesper Koll and Masaaki Kanno By Stephen Harner Bass comments: At 24 times central government tax revenues, cumulative Japanese government debt has reached a level which ensures financial collapse. Not, just a reserve drain. With the Abe/Aso government setting ...Read More

a word on the euro, US deficit doves, and Japan

As previously discussed, the euro looks to keep going up until the trade surplus reverses. Problem is the strong euro doesn’t necessarily cause the trade surplus to reverse, at least not in the short term. But it does tend to work against earnings and growth. And there’s nothing the ECB can do ...Read More

Japan’s debt approaches 1 quadrillion yen

Debt approaching 1 quadrillion, and the highest as a % of GDP anywhere I know of, and still no bond vigilantes in sight! Who would have thought??? Not to mention decades of 0 rates, massive QE, and in general the BOJ trying as hard as it can to inflate. Maybe it’s not ...Read More