Bonds Archive

Fed minutes, comments on full text

Comments in below and highlights mine: Developments in Financial Markets and the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet The Manager of the System Open Market Account reported on developments in domestic and foreign financial markets as well as the System open market operations during the period since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met ...Read More

macro update

While the Fed believes labor markets have improved sufficiently to start somehow unwinding QE, they have made it clear the data and their forecasts are not going to trigger any actual Fed rate hikes anytime soon. For one thing there is currently no sign of any kind of developing private sector credit ...Read More

China’s Treasury Holdings Fall 21 Bln Amid Fed Talk on Taper Timing

I’d guess most of that was runoff of short term bills so wouldn’t alter the longer term rates but it also might be the case that China told the fed they wouldn’t buy any more secs unless they ceased QE. The Fed doesn’t realize that we don’t need China or anyone else ...Read More

stocks bonds qe dynamics

Until markets recognize QE for the tax that it actually is, the QE policy is stabilizing for stocks, destabilizing for bonds. For example, good economic news is fundamentally good for stocks, but means QE may end, so the effects are offsetting. Same with bad economic news. Fundamentally bad, but means QE continues, ...Read More

Bill Gross – Fed tapering plan may be hasty:

I agree with a lot of this ‘Mortgage originations have plummeted by 39% since early May.’ The Fed’s financial obligations ratios have turned up as well. But it’s not about QE in any case It takes private credit expansion or net exports to overcome fiscal drag. Bill Gross: Fed tapering plan may ...Read More

Friday update- deficits matter, a lot!

So back to basics For 16t in output to get sold there must have been 16t in spending, which also translates into 16t in some agent’s income. And (apart from unsold inventory growth), for all practical purposes nominal GDP growth is another way to say sales growth. To state the obvious, sales ...Read More

Taper worms at the wheel

The taper worms are still driving things this am. To the taper worms, tapering equals ‘bonds’ higher in yield and stocks lower in price. Fundamentally, however, the Fed only tapers if the economy is strong which is good for stocks. And no tapering means the economy is weak, which is fundamentally bad ...Read More

Gross market move

Data point- with a couple of trillion under management your tweet moves bonds 10 basis points: ...Read More

Tsy floaters

Yes, the Treasury is in fact selling notes that float off of its own bills. :( The Treasury provided a preliminary term sheet for the floating rate note program that will launch sometime in Q4 or Q1. In addition, they said the first auction would have a 2yr maturity, and that the ...Read More

Rogoff & Reinhart answering my call in FT – Austerity is not the only answer to a debt problem

Good to see Ken, who I’ve never met, and Carmen who I do know, no doubt assisted by her husband Vince, beginning to come clean with this response. While not complete, it’s the beginning of an encouraging, epic reversal and a first step in the right direction! My comments added below: Austerity ...Read More