Category Archives: Bonds

Housing starts, Japan discussion, China, US pmi, store sales

Looks bad to me. Remember, for GDP to grow at last year’s rate, all the pieces on average have to contribute that much. And, as previously discussed, hard to see how starts and sales can grow with cash buyers and … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, CBs, China, Deficit, GDP, Housing, Japan, Trade |

Comments on Stanlely Fisher’s ‘Lessons from Crises, 1985-2014′

Lessons from Crises, 1985-2014 Stanley Fischer[1] It is both an honor and a pleasure to receive this years SIEPR Prize. Let me list the reasons. First, the prize, awarded for lifetime contributions to economic policy, was started by George Shultz. … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Bonds, CBs, Credit, Currencies, Deficit, ECB, Employment, Government Spending, Housing, Interest Rates |

Remember all the talk about the deficit causing rates to go up in Japan?

Full size image

Posted in Bonds, Interest Rates, Japan |

Yes, the Fed can set mortgage rates if it wants to!

One of the main reasons for the Fed’s (near) 0 rate policy is to support the housing market. And after nearly 5 years of 0 rates, and mortgage rates dipping below 3.5%, though ‘off the bottom’ housing remains far below … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Interest Rates |

Bernanke and Yellen pushing back on higher mortgage rates

Seems to me the Fed is making an all out effort to push back on the higher longer term rates, particularly mortgage rates. However, at least so far those rates remain elevated and at least so far mortgage purchase applications … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Housing, Interest Rates |

U.S. to Sell $10 Billion to $15 Billion in Floating Notes

Morons :( U.S. to Sell $10 Billion to $15 Billion in Floating Notes

Posted in Bonds |

Fama’s Fallacy

Here’s how you have to think to win a Nobel prize: Fama’s Fallacy: There is an identity in macroeconomics… private investment [PI] must equal the sum of private savings [PS], corporate savings (retained earnings) [CS], and government savings [GS]…. (1) … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Government Spending |

New home sales hammered, prompting doubts about recovery

Down and both prior months revised down as well. And this was before mtg rates spiked, and before mass layoffs were announced by mortgage originators, etc. And ‘months supply’ rose to a somewhat ‘normal’ 5.2 months of supply at the … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Deficit, Employment, Exports, GDP, Housing |

Fed minutes, comments on full text

Comments in below and highlights mine: Developments in Financial Markets and the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet The Manager of the System Open Market Account reported on developments in domestic and foreign financial markets as well as the System open market … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Credit, Deficit, Employment, Equities, Exports, Fed, GDP, Housing, Inflation, Interest Rates, USA |

macro update

While the Fed believes labor markets have improved sufficiently to start somehow unwinding QE, they have made it clear the data and their forecasts are not going to trigger any actual Fed rate hikes anytime soon. For one thing there … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Bonds, Employment, Fed |