Bonds Archive

A Modest Response

A Modest Proposal for Resolving the Eurozone Crisis By Y. Varoufakis, S. Holland AND J.K. Galbraith 1. Prologue Europe is fragmenting. While in the past year the European Central Bank has managed to stabilise the bond markets, the economies of the European core and its periphery are drifting apart. As this happens, ...Read More

durable goods, Case Shiller, new home sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, PMI services flash, GDP comments, 10 yr vs Fed

Down hard and revisions down hard as well, and year over year growth up less than 1%: Durable Goods Orders Highlights Durables orders unexpectedly fell 3.4 percent in December after dropping 2.1 percent in November. Analysts projected a 0.7 percent rise. Excluding transportation, the core slipped 0.8 in December following a decline ...Read More

Housing starts, Japan discussion, China, US pmi, store sales

Looks bad to me. Remember, for GDP to grow at last year’s rate, all the pieces on average have to contribute that much. And, as previously discussed, hard to see how starts and sales can grow with cash buyers and mtg purchase apps declining year over year. The charts look like we ...Read More

Comments on Stanlely Fisher’s ‘Lessons from Crises, 1985-2014’

Lessons from Crises, 1985-2014 Stanley Fischer[1] It is both an honor and a pleasure to receive this years SIEPR Prize. Let me list the reasons. First, the prize, awarded for lifetime contributions to economic policy, was started by George Shultz. I got my start in serious policy work in 1984-85, as a ...Read More

Remember all the talk about the deficit causing rates to go up in Japan?

Full size image ...Read More

Yes, the Fed can set mortgage rates if it wants to!

One of the main reasons for the Fed’s (near) 0 rate policy is to support the housing market. And after nearly 5 years of 0 rates, and mortgage rates dipping below 3.5%, though ‘off the bottom’ housing remains far below what would be considered ‘normal’. And then, not long ago, and immediately ...Read More

Bernanke and Yellen pushing back on higher mortgage rates

Seems to me the Fed is making an all out effort to push back on the higher longer term rates, particularly mortgage rates. However, at least so far those rates remain elevated and at least so far mortgage purchase applications remain down year over year. Again, seems to me it comes down ...Read More

U.S. to Sell $10 Billion to $15 Billion in Floating Notes

Morons :( U.S. to Sell $10 Billion to $15 Billion in Floating Notes ...Read More

Fama’s Fallacy

Here’s how you have to think to win a Nobel prize: Fama’s Fallacy: There is an identity in macroeconomics… private investment [PI] must equal the sum of private savings [PS], corporate savings (retained earnings) [CS], and government savings [GS]…. (1) PI = PS + CS + GS…. Government bailouts and stimulus plans ...Read More

New home sales hammered, prompting doubts about recovery

Down and both prior months revised down as well. And this was before mtg rates spiked, and before mass layoffs were announced by mortgage originators, etc. And ‘months supply’ rose to a somewhat ‘normal’ 5.2 months of supply at the current sales pace, taking some wind out of the ‘supply shortage’ story. ...Read More