Author Archive

Credit check

This kind of deceleration has always been associated with recession: Bending the curve: Actual lending continues to decelerate: So for the last 6 months the Fed is seeing a steep decline in credit growth and a softening in price pressures, wage growth, employment growth, auto sales, home sales and permits, retail sales, ...Read More

CPI, Oil and gas production, Hotels

So the Fed is failing to meet its inflation target, wage growth remains weak, and all measures of credit expansion have been decelerating for more than 6 months: Highlights Consumer prices remain very soft, failing to match what were modest Econoday expectations for July. Total prices edged 1 tenth higher in July ...Read More

PMC 2017

Thanks to all for your support for this year’s PMC! Looking like $48 million will be donated to Dana Farber for cancer research this year! Not too late if you haven’t contributed… ;) http://www2.pmc.org/profile/WM0015 I make my personal donation as a sponsor to insure every $ you donate goes to cancer research ...Read More

Dodge index, Euro area lending, China investment, Wholesale trade

This is reflected in the deceleration of commercial real estate lending: From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Stumbles in July The Dodge Momentum Index fell in July, dropping 3.3% to 135.0 (2000=100) from its revised June reading of 139.6. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) ...Read More

Small business survey, JOLTS

No sign of Trumped up expectations fading here: Hires fell, which most are saying indicates a lack of supply of workers. But the low wage growth and low participation rates tell me it’s more likely about low aggregate demand: Highlights Job openings rose sharply in June, to 6.163 million from 5.702 million ...Read More

Consumer credit

Less than expected as the deceleration continues. I read this as reflecting a drop in consumer spending. The savings rate has been down, and the personal income curve has been bent lower as well, and retail sales have also slowed. So it can all be read this way: The consumer has less ...Read More

Credit check

Possibly bottoming at much lower rates of growth: Still heading lower: Is the deceleration in borrowing reflecting a deceleration in spending? ...Read More

Employment, Trade, M2, Public employment, Rig count

More than the entire gain in civilian employment seems to have been via part time work: Highlights The second half of the year opens on a strong note as nonfarm payrolls rose 209,000 in July, far above Econoday’s consensus for 178,000. The unemployment rate moved 1 tenth lower to 4.3 percent while ...Read More

Factory orders, ISM services, China investments, ISM NY

Up nicely but not so good excluding aircraft orders, which are highly volatile: Highlights Factory orders surged 3.0 percent in June but were skewed higher by a more than doubling in monthly aircraft orders. Excluding transportation equipment, a reading that excludes aircraft, orders actually fell 0.2 percent in the month following a ...Read More

ADP, Euro inflation, Mtg purchase apps, Loan officer survey, Saudi output, jobs

Highlights ADP sees the private payroll reading in Friday’s employment report coming in at 178,000. But ADP has been wild lately, evident in its sharp 33,000 upward revision to June which is now at 191,000. Econoday expectations are calling for 175,000 in private payroll growth in Friday’s report and 178,000 in total ...Read More