Author Archive


Nice surprise on the upside, though there’s discussion it’s weather-related, as highlighted below. The growth rate moved up some as per the chart shows, but remains in a multi-year downtrend, with the low growth in hourly earnings an indication that demand remains very weak; Highlights There’s still no wage inflation underway but ...Read More

Trade with China, Bank loans, Chain store sales

Killing the goose that’s laying the golden eggs: Trump says China has been asked for plan to cut trade imbalance with U.S. Mar 7 (Reuters) — U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that China has been asked to develop a plan to reduce its trade surplus with the United States. Trump ...Read More

Factory orders, Trade, Consumer credit, Fed beige book, Las Vegas real estate sales

Highlights Today’s factory orders report, down 1.4 percent at the headline level but showing life underneath, closes the book on what was a mixed to soft month of January for manufacturing. Aircraft has been a bright spot for the factory sector and mitigates what is a 28 percent downswing in January. Excluding ...Read More

Light vehicle sales, Trump tariffs

Blaming interest rates for a decline that started about two years ago: U.S. Car Sales Fall as Credit Terms, Higher Payments Squeeze Buyers (WSJ) Overall U.S. vehicle sales dropped 2.4% in February, to 1.3 million, according to Autodata Corp. J.D. Power estimates incentive spending in February—averaging $3,850 per vehicle—was down slightly from ...Read More

Personal income and expenditures, Construction spending

About as expected, with a relatively small increase from the tax cuts, which are a one time event. And the weakness in consumption hints at those receiving the cuts having a low propensity to spend. Also, the still too low personal savings rate suggests continuing weakness: Highlights Core inflation did noticeably rise ...Read More

MMT article, Mtg purchase apps, Pending home sales

Very friendly article! Modern Money Theory Explained (Vice) Nice increase but year over year remains weak: Highlights With the rise in mortgage rates taking a pause, purchase applications for home mortgages rose by a seasonally adjusted 6.0 percent in the February 23 week. But unadjusted, purchase applications were down 1.0 percent from ...Read More

Trade, Durable goods orders, Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed survey, Atlanta Fed nowcast

More signs of a slowdown as exports fall, which means less gdp, and consumer imports down, meaning personal spending was lower than expected, as discussed might be the case previously due to lower personal income growth: Highlights Exports came back sharply in January to feed an oversized $74.4 billion goods deficit in ...Read More

New home sales, Core inflation chart, Trump testimony

Large drop from already historically depressed levels reverses year end spike, and inline with depressed mortgage applications: Highlights Sales of new homes slowed but not all the data in January’s new home sales report are negative. New home sales came in at a much lower-than-expected 593,000 annualized rate in January though, in ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Existing home sales, Euro current account, Bank lending, Cycle chart

Deteriorating rapidly now? Not good: This is, fundamentally, seriously strong euro stuff: No improvement here as, most recently, growth has gone to 0: ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, CPI, Retail sales

Still depressed and going nowhere: Highlights Amid rising interest rates, purchase applications for home mortgages fell by a seasonally adjusted 6.0 percent in the February 9 week. Unadjusted, the year-on-year gain in the volume of purchase applications fell 4.0 percentage points to 4.0 percent. Applications for refinancing fell just 2.0 percent in ...Read More