Author Archive

2008-01-09 US Economic Releases

MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 4) Survey n/a Actual 32.2% Prior -11.6% Revised n/a As expected, purchase applications sprung back after the annual fall of in late Dec. Markets were concerned this wouldn’t happen this year. Refi index up indicates market functioning returning here as well. 30 year mtg rate down to 5.73% ...Read More

2008-01-09 EU Highlights

Fed will take heat for conducting a weak $, beggar thy neighbor, inflate your way out of debt policy, as it will be seen US exports are robbing demand from eurozone, while price pressures rise, spreading stagflation around the world. Highlights: ♦ Europe’s Economic Expansion Exceeds Earlier Estimate ♦ German Output, Exports, ...Read More

2008-01-08 US Economic Releases

Pending Home Sales Total SA Survey -0.7% Actual -2.6% Prior 0.6% Revised n/a Down a touch but not through the lows, could still be forming a bottom. Economic Outlook Personal Financial Outlook Federal Economic Policies Overall Jan. 2008 31.4 55.7 42.7 43.2 Dec. 2007 32.1 58.3 42.7 44.4 Nov. 2007 30.8 53.5 ...Read More

Plosser the hawk on the tape

This is the most hawkish Fed pres: GLADWYNE, PENNSYLVANIA (Thomson Financial) – The head of the Philly Fed, Charles Plosser, today raised the possibility of a stagflation threat to the US economy. “Although I am expecting slow economic growth for several quarters, we should not rely on slow growth to reduce inflation,” ...Read More

Inflation – clear and present danger?

Food, fuel, and $/import prices present a triple negative supply shock. Now gold pushing $900 as LIBOR falls, commercial paper issuance increases, and ‘market function risk’ subsides. Downside risks to GDP are still not trivial. Consumer income and desire to spend it may be problematic, and banks and other lenders may further ...Read More

Saudi production up a tad

Saudi production increased marginally for January, and all indications are net demand is holding up at the higher prices. While this bodes for continued price hikes, markets may have likely sold off on the news, believing the higher production is a sign of a proactive supply increase that will drive prices down. ...Read More

Ron Paul statement

“The Fed needs to stop printing money to buy US government securities.”-Ron Paul Ron Paul on the monetary system, as he calls for a return to the gold standard. This is one of his numerous nonsensical, inapplicable rhetorical outbursts on the monetary system on national television. The lack of media criticism, by ...Read More

Fed’s Lockhart: economic outlook

He is currently leaning towards cuts, but watching carefully for signs of improvements in market functioning and output, and aware of the risks of his inflation forecast being wrong. Fed’s Lockhart: Economic Outlook From Atlanta Fed President Dennis P. Lockhart: The Economy in 2008 Looking to 2008, I believe the pivotal question—the ...Read More

The upcoming fiscal policy changes

Another possibility is the Fed doesn’t want to cut rates due to inflation risks, and might see a tax cut as sufficient potential support for demand to allow them to not cut rates and instead address the inflation issue. This would be based on the mainstream notion (not mine) that monetary policy ...Read More

Re: Fannie/Freddie risk

All that matters is their ability to keep buying new paper or, if they can’t, whether someone else steps in to buy it. That helps sustain aggregate demand. The rest is just rearranging of financial assets. On Jan 6, 2008 1:29 PM, Russell Huntley <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > The Baltimore ...Read More