Author Archive
2008-01-09 US Economic Releases
Daily
Jan 09, 2008
MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 4) Survey n/a Actual 32.2% Prior -11.6% Revised n/a As expected, purchase applications sprung back after the annual fall of in late Dec. Markets were concerned this wouldn’t happen this year. Refi index up indicates market functioning returning here as well. 30 year mtg rate down to 5.73%
...Read More
2008-01-09 EU Highlights
Fed will take heat for conducting a weak $, beggar thy neighbor, inflate your way out of debt policy, as it will be seen US exports are robbing demand from eurozone, while price pressures rise, spreading stagflation around the world. Highlights: ♦ Europe’s Economic Expansion Exceeds Earlier Estimate ♦ German Output, Exports,
...Read More
2008-01-08 US Economic Releases
Daily
Jan 08, 2008
Pending Home Sales Total SA Survey -0.7% Actual -2.6% Prior 0.6% Revised n/a Down a touch but not through the lows, could still be forming a bottom. Economic Outlook Personal Financial Outlook Federal Economic Policies Overall Jan. 2008 31.4 55.7 42.7 43.2 Dec. 2007 32.1 58.3 42.7 44.4 Nov. 2007 30.8 53.5
...Read More
Plosser the hawk on the tape
Fed, Inflation, Interest Rates
Jan 08, 2008
This is the most hawkish Fed pres: GLADWYNE, PENNSYLVANIA (Thomson Financial) – The head of the Philly Fed, Charles Plosser, today raised the possibility of a stagflation threat to the US economy. “Although I am expecting slow economic growth for several quarters, we should not rely on slow growth to reduce inflation,”
...Read More
Inflation – clear and present danger?
Food, fuel, and $/import prices present a triple negative supply shock. Now gold pushing $900 as LIBOR falls, commercial paper issuance increases, and ‘market function risk’ subsides. Downside risks to GDP are still not trivial. Consumer income and desire to spend it may be problematic, and banks and other lenders may further
...Read More
Saudi production up a tad
Saudi production increased marginally for January, and all indications are net demand is holding up at the higher prices. While this bodes for continued price hikes, markets may have likely sold off on the news, believing the higher production is a sign of a proactive supply increase that will drive prices down.
...Read More
Ron Paul statement
Politics
Jan 08, 2008
“The Fed needs to stop printing money to buy US government securities.”-Ron Paul Ron Paul on the monetary system, as he calls for a return to the gold standard. This is one of his numerous nonsensical, inapplicable rhetorical outbursts on the monetary system on national television. The lack of media criticism, by
...Read More
Fed’s Lockhart: economic outlook
He is currently leaning towards cuts, but watching carefully for signs of improvements in market functioning and output, and aware of the risks of his inflation forecast being wrong. Fed’s Lockhart: Economic Outlook From Atlanta Fed President Dennis P. Lockhart: The Economy in 2008 Looking to 2008, I believe the pivotal questionâ€â€Âthe
...Read More
The upcoming fiscal policy changes
Another possibility is the Fed doesn’t want to cut rates due to inflation risks, and might see a tax cut as sufficient potential support for demand to allow them to not cut rates and instead address the inflation issue. This would be based on the mainstream notion (not mine) that monetary policy
...Read More
Re: Fannie/Freddie risk
Email
Jan 06, 2008
All that matters is their ability to keep buying new paper or, if they can’t, whether someone else steps in to buy it. That helps sustain aggregate demand. The rest is just rearranging of financial assets. On Jan 6, 2008 1:29 PM, Russell Huntley <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > The Baltimore
...Read More