Author Archive

2008-01-08 US Economic Releases

Pending Home Sales Total SA Survey -0.7% Actual -2.6% Prior 0.6% Revised n/a Down a touch but not through the lows, could still be forming a bottom. Economic Outlook Personal Financial Outlook Federal Economic Policies Overall Jan. 2008 31.4 55.7 42.7 43.2 Dec. 2007 32.1 58.3 42.7 44.4 Nov. 2007 30.8 53.5 ...Read More

Plosser the hawk on the tape

This is the most hawkish Fed pres: GLADWYNE, PENNSYLVANIA (Thomson Financial) – The head of the Philly Fed, Charles Plosser, today raised the possibility of a stagflation threat to the US economy. “Although I am expecting slow economic growth for several quarters, we should not rely on slow growth to reduce inflation,” ...Read More

Inflation – clear and present danger?

Food, fuel, and $/import prices present a triple negative supply shock. Now gold pushing $900 as LIBOR falls, commercial paper issuance increases, and ‘market function risk’ subsides. Downside risks to GDP are still not trivial. Consumer income and desire to spend it may be problematic, and banks and other lenders may further ...Read More

Saudi production up a tad

Saudi production increased marginally for January, and all indications are net demand is holding up at the higher prices. While this bodes for continued price hikes, markets may have likely sold off on the news, believing the higher production is a sign of a proactive supply increase that will drive prices down. ...Read More

Ron Paul statement

“The Fed needs to stop printing money to buy US government securities.”-Ron Paul Ron Paul on the monetary system, as he calls for a return to the gold standard. This is one of his numerous nonsensical, inapplicable rhetorical outbursts on the monetary system on national television. The lack of media criticism, by ...Read More

Fed’s Lockhart: economic outlook

He is currently leaning towards cuts, but watching carefully for signs of improvements in market functioning and output, and aware of the risks of his inflation forecast being wrong. Fed’s Lockhart: Economic Outlook From Atlanta Fed President Dennis P. Lockhart: The Economy in 2008 Looking to 2008, I believe the pivotal question—the ...Read More

The upcoming fiscal policy changes

Another possibility is the Fed doesn’t want to cut rates due to inflation risks, and might see a tax cut as sufficient potential support for demand to allow them to not cut rates and instead address the inflation issue. This would be based on the mainstream notion (not mine) that monetary policy ...Read More

Re: Fannie/Freddie risk

All that matters is their ability to keep buying new paper or, if they can’t, whether someone else steps in to buy it. That helps sustain aggregate demand. The rest is just rearranging of financial assets. On Jan 6, 2008 1:29 PM, Russell Huntley <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > The Baltimore ...Read More

The subprime mess

On Jan 5, 2008 9:40 PM, Steve Martyak wrote: > > > > also…. > > 9/4/2006 > Cover of Business Week: How Toxic Is Your Mortgage? :. > > The option ARM is “like the neutron bomb,” says George McCarthy, a housing > economist at New York’s Ford Foundation. “It’s ...Read More

Fed communications

If conveying information is considered important for market function, why not just say it clearly and directly in a targeted announcement? Kohn Says Fed Is Trying to Signal When Views Shift `Materially’ 2008-01-05 11:15 (New York) By Scott Lanman and Steve Matthews (Bloomberg) Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the central ...Read More