Author Archive

Re: fed mandate discussion

On 03 Jan 2008 20:05:33 +0000, Prof. P. Arestis wrote: > Dear Warren, > (snip) > > One point is this: some more extreme people would argue that low inflation > is both a necessary and sufficient condition for optimal longterm growth and > employment. Dear Philip, Agreed, and we will soon ...Read More

Re: fiscal response

On 04 Jan 2008 22:29:03 +0000, Prof. P. Arestis wrote: > Dear Warren, > > Many thanks. > > This is all interesting. The sentence that caught my eye is this: “A fiscal > package is being discussed to day by Bernanke, Paulson, and Bush. That > would also reduce the odds ...Read More

2008-01-04 US Economic Releases

Unemployment Rate (Dec) Survey 4.8% Actual 5.0% Prior 4.7% Revised n/a It comes from the household survey – been volatile. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) Survey 70K Actual 18K Prior 94K Revised 115K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec) Survey -15K Actual -31K Prior -11K Revised -13K Payroll increases continue to decline modestly ...Read More

Re: US Libor GC Spreads comment

(an interoffice email) Good report, thanks! On Jan 4, 2008 10:41 AM, Pat Doyle wrote: > > > > Pre- August 2007 GC US Treasury’s repo averaged Libor less 17 across the > curve. In early August and again in early December the spread between GC > and Libor hit it’s wides ...Read More


(email) On Jan 4, 2008 10:43 AM, Mike wrote: > Warren, right now economic sectors in stock mkt are pricing in a severe > recession-your call on no recession is extremely out of consensus now-I > think that mkt has overdone the recession theme short term… Agreed! We may get to 0 ...Read More

A blurb from a broker

(email) > > An impressive November Factory Orders report offered a respite from the > recent round of weak economic data. Yes, and maybe even nudge up Q4 forecasts (forecasting the past). Also, if you look at the continuing claims graph since 1980, it is very low, especially when considering the growth ...Read More

2008-01-03 US Economic Releases

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 28) Survey n/a Actual -11/6% Prior -7.6% Revised n/a Last December number – purchase applications normally shoot back up in January. Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec) Survey n/a Actual -18.7% Prior -4.7% Revised n/a Graph looks OK. ADP Employment Change (Dec) Survey 33K Actual 40K Prior 189K Revised ...Read More

January 2008 update

The following sums up the mainstream approach: Low inflation is a NECESSARY condition for optimal long term growth and employment. There is not trade off. If a CB acts to support near term output, and allows inflation to rise, the longer term cost to output of bringing down that inflation is far ...Read More

Bernanke, King Risk Inflation to Extend Growth Party

Mainstream economists will be increasingly stating that the real GDP ‘speed limit’ is falling or even negative. That is, the non inflationary growth potential has dropped, and any attempt to support real growth at higher than that ‘non inflationary natural rate’ will only accelerate an already more than problematic inflation rate. That ...Read More

Roubini blog

Roubini totally doesn’t get it. The point of CB intervention is to keep interest rates at their target rates, not to provide funds for lending, as described in previous posts. This plan will succeed at doing that, best I can tell. It’s all about price, not quantity. That’s all a CB can ...Read More