Author Archive

Poland cutting demand

This has been much the same for new members that previously had higher budget deficits. It firms the Euro and keeps unemployment higher than otherwise. [Before the euro, tight fiscal was ‘offset’ by the national CBs bought $ (I call that ‘off balance sheet deficit spending’) which supported employment and net export ...Read More

Oil comments

Iraqi Oil Minister Sees No Output Change from OPEC (Reuters) Iraq’s oil minister Hussain al-Shahristani said on Thursday there was no sign of any shortage of oil in international markets and he did not expect OPEC to change its output levels at a meeting this week. Saudis might like letting prices sag ...Read More

Valance Weekly Economic Reports: Global News Highlights

Same twin themes taking hold – weakness and inflation. Highlights: US Mixed data EU Softening data could change ECB’s inflation rhetoric JN CPI Higher on food, energy prices; Mixed data continues UK Housing Market Continued To Show Weakness AU Businesses Less Confident About Q1 economic outlook ♥ ...Read More

Saudi production up to 9.2 mbpd

Opec reported Saudi production was up to 9.2 million bpd. This means demand has increased at the current posted prices probably making further price hikes are more likely than not. Bloomberg should have updated production numbers around February 5 for confirmation. ♥ ...Read More

GDP/ADP

From Karim: GDP slows from 4.9% to 0.6% Personal consumption slows from 2.8% to 2.5% DGO strength in Dec shows up in modest positive in equipment and software (+3.8%) Residential FI (housing) down 23.9% Core PCE up 2.7% annualized for quarter and 2.1% y/y Net exports add 0.4% to gwth Inventories a ...Read More

2008-01-30 US Economic Releases

MBAVPRCH Index + 4 Wk Ave + 12 Wk Ave From Karim: very volatile series-see chart-white line is purchase index-purple line is 4wk avg and green line is 12wk avg-latter is probably best indicator of trend and looks like still heading lower. Of course this series also reflects multiple applications for same ...Read More

U.K. mortgage approvals drop to least since 1999

U.K. Mortgage Approvals Drop to Least Since 1999 By Jennifer Ryan (Bloomberg) U.K. mortgage approvals dropped in December to the lowest in at least nine years, and consumer credit fell, threatening the outlook for economic growth. Lenders granted 73,000 loans for house purchase, down from 81,000 in November and the least since ...Read More

FOMC preview

My guess is the GDP forecast the Fed is now getting from it’s staff is not a downgrade from previous forecasts, and may even be an upgrade due to: The blowout durable goods numbers The drops in claims following the high unemployment number The private forecasts on average show 65,000 new jobs ...Read More

Crude just traded over $92/barrel

The markets and the Fed now look at higher crude as evidence of higher demand. ♥ ...Read More

ISM revised upward

Seems most of Q4 was revised up, and Q3 as well. TABLE-U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index revised to 54.4 in Dec (Reuters) The Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday released annual seasonal adjustments to some of its monthly non-manufacturing indexes. REVISIONS Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July June May Apr Mar Feb Jan ...Read More