Author Archive

Home prices and OER

Looks like it will take a very large drop in home prices to slow the ‘pull’ on owner’s equivalent rent (the basis for the CPI housing component). ♥ ...Read More

2008-01-18 EU Highlights

With the US Fed cutting aggressively, and now a reasonably large US fiscal package a near certainty, the mainstream will see increase in US demand as further support for world prices. They have no economic theory to support this. In fact, mainstream theory would more likely be inclined to call this policy ...Read More

The fix is in – strong growth for 2008?

We have gone from the jobless recovery to the full employment recession. Recap of prospects for strong GDP in 2008 – details/support covered in previous posts: Government spending has been moved forward and is now kicking in. Exports accelerating, sustainable, and keeping personal income growing. Business inventories are very low. Fiscal package ...Read More

2008-01-17 US Economic Releases

Housing Starts (Dec) Survey 1145K Actual 1006K Prior 1187K Revised 1173K Building Permits (Dec) Survey 1135K Actual 1068K Prior 1152K Revised 1162K Both still in free fall – may be weather distorted some, but they don’t look good. Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 12) Survey 331K Actual 301K Prior 322K Revised n/a All ...Read More


Fed/Bernanke probably concerned about core CPI going so high and making ‘popular’ headlines and is worried about cutting 50 into the triple negative supply shock of food/fuel/import-export prices. And with today’s claims number showing, there may not be as much slack in the labor markets as the last unemployment number indicated. The ...Read More

December beige book – modest increase

No recession, yet.. Stocks rise after Fed releases report by Tim Paradis (CNBC) Stocks were mostly higher Wednesday after a Federal Reserve report showing economic growth at the end of 2007 appeared to quiet some worries of a precipitous slowdown in the economy. The modest rebound from a sharp pullback Tuesday came ...Read More

2008-01-16 US Economic Releases

Average Mortgage Purchasing Index (Jan 11) Survey n/a Actual 461.20 Prior 414.00 Revised n/a Mortgage Refi’s (Jan 11) Survey n/a Actual 3575.50 Prior 2494.20 Revised n/a Purchase index back on uptrend, refi way up. Lower rates and return of market functioning coming together nicely. Still looks like housing could have bottomed October/November, ...Read More

Food/fuel/$ bakes in core

Near triple digit gains for 2007 in food and fuel and rising export/import prices from the weak $ policy will keep core inflation on the high side for a long time. And with the great pricing of risk ‘crisis’ no longer a forward looking phenomena, the beginnings of a housing recovery, financial ...Read More

Mortgage applications soar

Home loan demand surges to near four-year high By Julie Haviv (Reuters) U.S. mortgage applications surged last week, with demand hitting its highest in nearly four years as interest rates plunged, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both ...Read More

2008-01-16 EU Highlights

Overall, inflation and weakness continues: European Inflation Holds Above 3% as Food Prices Soar German 2007 Inflation Fastest Since Records Began France: Inflation up to 2.3% in Q4 sunk real wages, spending ECB’s Weber Says Shouldn’t `Over-Dramatize’ Inflation Jump Europe’s Economies Face `Stagflation’ Risk This Year Weber Says ECB Won’t Tolerate Excessive ...Read More