Author Archive

New vehicle sales

If there is going to be negative growth, this drop is a start, and I’d expect car sales to fall further from here soon. ♥ ...Read More

Updated January 31 month end report

Please excuse the mix of Bloomberg and Valance graphs. Comments welcome. Went blurry eyed trying to organize it all. Markets reacted strongly to Friday’s -17,000 non-farm payroll number. Several sources called it the first negative payroll number in 4 years. How quickly they forget the first negative number was the initial August ...Read More

2008-02-01 US Economic Releases

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) Survey 70K Actual -17K Prior 18K Revised 82K Last negative number was August – got revised up. Apart from the unrevised January number, the revised previous numbers don’t look too bad. (See following report.) Unemployment Rate Survey 5.0% Actual 4.9% Prior 5.0% Revised n/a Slight downtic. The ...Read More

3 most important numbers

From Karim: Index of aggregate hours -0.3% Diffusion index from 50.0 to 46.2 Median duration of unemployment from 8.4 to 8.8 weeks So output likely declining, more industries shedding jobs than adding, and l-t unemployed accounting for larger % of total unemployed Other notes.. Unemployment rate falls from 4.97% to 4.925%. Partially ...Read More


Expect a lot more takeover activity supporting equities. Forces are stacked against ‘normal’ shareholding, as management is incented to dilute shareholders as previously discussed, and as repeatedly demonstrated during the last 6 months via dilutive converts, etc. By taking over the entire company, that risk goes away. This means that since public ...Read More

2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

Personal Income (Dec) Survey 0.4% Actual 0.5% Prior 0.4% Revised n/a Personal Income TABLE A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component. Personal Spending (Dec) Survey 0.1% Actual 0.2% Prior 1.1% Revised 1.0% Personal Spending TABLE OK number after last month’s large increase. ...Read More

Re: ECB funding Spanish mortgage banking system

(an interoffice email) Deep, Interesting! In the case of a bank failure, Spain still is the entity that would repay depositors. To get the funds Spain would somehow liquidate the failed bank. If the loss was large enough so that Spain couldn’t raise the funds to pay off the depositors (via both ...Read More

Claims, ECI

From Karim: True to the past 5yrs pattern, claims seem to be reverting to trend after the first few weeks of January. Right, good call! IJC climbed from 306k to 375k; the trend before the January drop was around 340-350k; this number was for MLK holiday week, so an adjustment issue here ...Read More

Monoline proposal

Fed by itself or working with AAA counterparty offers to sell supplemental bond insurance to investors. (AFLAC concept) Maybe charge a point and insure up to a price of maybe 99, or whatever combo works. Worst case the current insurers are downgraded to AA, so they should still be able to cover ...Read More

EU data

stagflation there too Actual Forecast Previous 6:00am EUR CPI y/y (p) 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 6:00am EUR Consumer Confidence -12 -10 -9 6:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% ♥ ...Read More