Author Archive

FOMC preview

My guess is the GDP forecast the Fed is now getting from it’s staff is not a downgrade from previous forecasts, and may even be an upgrade due to: The blowout durable goods numbers The drops in claims following the high unemployment number The private forecasts on average show 65,000 new jobs ...Read More

Crude just traded over $92/barrel

The markets and the Fed now look at higher crude as evidence of higher demand. ♥ ...Read More

ISM revised upward

Seems most of Q4 was revised up, and Q3 as well. TABLE-U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index revised to 54.4 in Dec (Reuters) The Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday released annual seasonal adjustments to some of its monthly non-manufacturing indexes. REVISIONS Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July June May Apr Mar Feb Jan ...Read More

Inflation expectations update

As of 1pm today – this is what the Fed is looking at for today’s meeting. Most say if you let expectations elevate it’s too late. Others think they can be allowed to elevate a little bit and then brought down. ♥ ...Read More

2008-01-29 US Economic Releases

Durable Goods Orders Total (Dec) Survey n/a Actual 226,601 Prior 215,433 Revised n/a Durables Ex Transportation Total (Dec) Survey n/a Actual 155,206 Prior 151,303 Revised n/a Durable Goods YoY % Change Survey n/a Actual 5.0% Prior -0.6% Revised n/a Doesn’t look much like recession to me. November revised up to where last ...Read More

Responses to comments on the ‘Comments on Brian Wesbury article’ post

Post: Comments on Brian Wesbury article Comment by ‘Hoover Printing Press‘: Warren congrats on your new website. Thanks! I keep reading that the bond insurers have let banks keep lots of “accounting issues” off the books – thus affecting tier 1 capital requirements – currently to the banks advantage. Without the bond ...Read More

Comments on Brian Wesbury article

He’s got the data right, and I agree with all he concludes from it. All he’s missing is the difference he points two between now (unlimited funds available) and The Great Depression (banks short of lendable funds), including what the Fed presumably ‘did’ each time, are the differences between the constraints of ...Read More

Re: exports and the $

On Jan 28, 2008 4:26 PM, Mike wrote: > bottom line if trade deficit shrinks via export strength that has to be > extremely dollar bullish-which has all sorts of implications (both of > you are saying the same thing in that respect)… sort of. it is shrinking as they are puking ...Read More

Gasoline demand

this doesn’t look like the stuff of recession: FUNDAMENTALS TO SUPPORT Barclays Capital said gasoline demand indications from the U.S., the world’s largest consumer, have been robust. “Gasoline is showing the strongest year-on-year growth in demand for January-to-date,” it said in a research note. “In each of the past six years, February ...Read More

2008-01-28 US Economic Releases

New Home Sales (Dec) Survey 647K Actual 604K Prior 647K Revised 634K New Home Sales MoM (Dec) Survey 0.0% Actual -4.7% Prior -9.0% Revised -12.6% New Home Sales Average Price Survey n/a Actual 267.3 Prior 311.2 Revised n/a # Homes for Sale Survey n/a Actual 495 Prior 502 Revised n/a Home sales ...Read More