Author Archive

Small business survey, Commercial construction index, Buybacks comments

Trumped up expectations continue to unwind, though still above pre election levels, and note the details: Highlights The small business optimism fell 2.3 points in September to 103.0, led by a sharp drop in sales expectations, not only in states affected by hurricanes in Texas and Florida, but across the country. The ...Read More

Credit check

Appears to be leveling off at much lower rates of growth than last year, as reflected by weaker than expected data releases and revisions: ...Read More

Employment, Consumer credit, Social security comment, Corporate debt, Party affiliation

Year over year growth has been decelerating for all practical purposes in a straight line, as per the chart. And the downward revisions in prior months are further evidence of the weakness which began with the collapse in oil capex at the end of 2014. And wage growth increased at least partially ...Read More

Factory orders, Corp spending, Equity comment

You can see from the longer term charts not much to write home about here: Highlights Increasing strength in capital goods is the good news in today’s factory orders report where a headline 1.2 percent gain is 2 tenths above Econoday’s consensus. The split between the report’s two main components shows a ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Trump comments, Greek comments

Nice spike after the hurricane lull: Highlights In the strongest monthly sales performance in 12 years, unit vehicle sales shot up to a hurricane-fueled 18.6 million annualized rate in September vs a hurricane-depressed 16.1 million rate in August. September’s rate points squarely at replacement demand following Hurricane Harvey’s flooding of Houston just ...Read More

Trade, Jobless claims, Kelton NYT op ed

Late in 2014, when oil prices collapsed along with oil capital expenditures, it was widely proclaimed to be an unambiguous positive for the US economy. This included a forecast for a lower trade deficit due to lower oil prices. However, I suggested that, to the contrary, the trade gap might, if anything, ...Read More

PR note, ADP, Holiday sales, Euro area sales taxes, Erdogan on rates, Tillerson comment, PR bonds

Just noticed this. PR has had over 500,000 move to the states for economic reasons: For many Puerto Rico residents, it’s time to leave the island Note: Puerto Rico is not included in the national employment report. FYI: Highlights Hurricanes didn’t scramble ADP’s sample too much in September with their private payroll ...Read More

State Index, Construction spending, PMI and ISM

More data that shows we may already be in recession, and in line with the deceleration in bank lending: Large downward revision to last month was larger than this month’s gain: Highlights The construction spending report is often volatile and today’s results are an example. The headline is up a solid 0.5 ...Read More

Credit check, Expectations vs spending, Inflation, Comments on Fed policy

You may be hearing about ‘spike’ in lending last week, so I’ll try to give you some perspective using commercial and industrial lending charts before just showing year over year changes: In this 10 year chart you can see how the growth in lending suddenly slowed back in November 2016. You can ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Consumer sentiment

July Personal income revised down to .3 and August only .2 further confirms income growth- the driver of consumption- has slowed down in line with the deceleration in bank lending, and the same seems to be the case with spending, with weak price indicators further confirming the same weak demand narrative. And ...Read More