Author Archive

Housing starts, nat gas, retired workers returning

Softening from historically low levels: Another commodity that seems to have had a spike that’s ending: Retirees are ‘unretiring’ — and that’s good for the labor market ...Read More

Industrial production, retail sales

Just muddling along: Sales dropped when covid hit, and have subsequently recovered and the total now appears to be about what it would have been without the covid interruption: ...Read More

Jolts, consumer sentiment

Note the ‘Hires’ in blue: ...Read More

CPI, commodity charts

Quite a few price increases, which the media now calls ‘inflation’ even though inflation is a continuous increase in the price level: The annual inflation rate in the US surged to 6.2% in October of 2021, the highest since November of 1990 and above forecasts of 5.8%. Upward pressure was broad-based, with ...Read More

Employment, US oil production

Progress, but at a decelerating rate: The US economy added 531K jobs in October of 2021, the most in 3 months and above market forecasts of 450K as Covid-19 cases dropped and employers offered higher wages and more flexible hours. The biggest job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (164K), in professional ...Read More

ISM services, ADP, unemployment claims, trade

Good news here. The back to work story may be happening: Same here, if it’s any indication of the Friday employment report: This would be a good thing if the government understood it meant lower taxes or more public services. Instead, it’s simply incomes not being spent on domestic goods and services: ...Read More

Vehicle sales, commercial real estate investment, China services PMI, mortgage purchase apps

Still way down: I like the headline but the chart not so much: China Services PMI Rises to 3-Month High The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 53.8 in October 2021 from 53.4 in the prior month, pointing to the second straight month of expansion in the service sector and the ...Read More

Optimism index, Consumer sentiment, port congestion, lumber, iron ore, coal, steel, soybeans

Apparently ports are clearing: Several commodities seem to have peaked and then fallen back. Inflation is a continuous increase in the price level, so it doesn’t seem like that’s yet the case: ...Read More

China, Brazil manufacturing, US Construction Spending, coal

Seems a global thing: No recovery here: Another price reversal: GC Newcastle coal futures tumbled by over 30% to $150 per metric ton, the lowest in three months, and are more than 40% below a record high of $269.5 hit on October 5th, as China stepped up policies to boost output ahead ...Read More

GDP, Unemployment claims, China coal

Deficit spending as a % of GDP heading south fast: US GDP Growth Disappoints The American economy expanded an annualized 2% on quarter in Q3 2021, well below market forecasts of 2.7% and slowing sharply from 6.7% in Q2. It is the weakest growth of pandemic recovery as an infusion of government ...Read More