Author Archive

Employment, Consumer credit, Bank loans

Highlights In mixed results, March payroll growth of 103,000 is well below expectations but wage indications from average hourly earnings do show a little pressure as was expected, up 0.3 percent on the month with the year-on-year rate up 1 tenth to 2.7 percent. The unemployment rate did not move down which ...Read More

Small business jobs index, Balance of trade, Domestic vehicle sales

Small business jobs index down some and not looking good: Weak $ stuff: ...Read More

Construction spending, Private credit growth, Turkey

Worse than expected, weak, and decelerating: Highlights Construction spending has been soft, inching only 0.1 percent higher in February after posting no change in January but there are definitely signs of strength in the details. The most important gains are being posted for new single-family homes, up 0.9 percent for a second ...Read More

Personal income and spending, Gross Domestic Income, Bank lending

Everything pretty much as expected, more comments via the charts: Highlights Inflation data are inching higher while softness in spending is offset by strength in wages. The core PCE price index managed only an as-expected 0.2 percent gain in February though the year-on-year rate moved a notch higher to 1.6 percent, which ...Read More

Pending home sales, Trade, Profits

The second article reveals the year over year situation, which takes out seasonal factors: Highlights Existing home sales have been struggling to move higher but today’s pending home sales index will raise expectations for improvement. Pending home sales rose a sharp 3.1 percent in data for February though they follow an even ...Read More

Oil prices, Euro lending, Euro comment

Saudis could be targeting a euro price rather than a $US price? It’s their call! With capped national deficits the economy needs growing private sector deficit spending or a growing current account surplus to satisfy growing savings desires: Low inflation = weak currency??? :( ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Industrial Production revisions, Tariff comments

Still looking very weak: From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Forecast: Sales Down Slightly; Inventory Declines to Match Demand A Wards Intelligence forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.60 million light vehicles in March. … The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 16.9 million units, higher ...Read More

Current account, Existing home sales

Q4 worse than expected and prior quarter revised lower, which means downward GDP revisions: Highlights The current-account deficit increased to a roughly as-expected $128.2 billion in the fourth quarter vs the third quarter’s slightly revised $101.5 billion deficit which benefited from $24.9 billion in hurricane-related insurance payments. As a percentage of GDP, ...Read More

Housing starts, Industrial production

As previously discussed, the spike in multi family reported in Jan has reversed in Feb: Highlights Home sales turned lower in January as did housing starts and permits in February, and noticeably so. Housing starts fell 7.0 percent in the month to a much lower-than-expected annualized rate of 1.236 million while building ...Read More

Inventory to sales ratio, New economic adviser, Tax refunds

Still elevated: Didn’t take him long to sell out: Federal tax refunds have caught up which may have slowed spending in Feb: ...Read More