Author Archive

Trade, Consumer credit

The trade deficit narrowed but due to a drop in consumer spending on imported cell phones, which doesn’t bode well for retail sales, which are under pressure from the reduced growth of real disposable personal income. And the widening trade gap with the euro area is fundamentally euro friendly even as fears ...Read More

Debt securities and loans, Vehicle sales, Manufacturers orders

Another indication of low aggregate demand this cycle: Continuing to weaken: Recovering from the dip but still has a ways to go: This component had previously leveled off at about today’s level: Actual shipments recovering but still not looking so good: Inventories correcting but remain elevated: ...Read More

Employment, Construction spending

Above expectations and indicative of continuous modest growth. However, I have trouble making it all ‘add up’. More comments below: Highlights Employment growth is strong and it is not entirely without wage pressure. Nonfarm payrolls rose 223,000 in May to just top Econoday’s high estimate while the unemployment rate moves down a ...Read More

Personal income and outlays, Corporate profits, Trade, Bank lending, Corporate debt

Spending was up, but unfortunately due to higher gas prices, which were paid for by further dipping into savings that were already far too low. So looks to me like q2 is off to a very uncertain start after a weak q1: Highlights Income isn’t quite as soft and spending isn’t quite ...Read More

Existing home sales, Durable goods, China debt, State index

More weakness: Highlights Yesterday’s new home sales report showed less strength than expected while today’s existing home sales results are outright disappointing. Sales fell 2.5 percent in April to an annualized rate of 5.460 million which falls below Econoday’s low estimate. The decline in sales came despite a sizable increase in supply ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, New home sales, Architecture billing index, China

Weakness continues: Housing, while growing modestly, remains very depressed historically: Highlights Month after month the new home sales report shows its volatility behind which, however, slight strength is evident. Sales in April came in 15,000 short of Econoday’s consensus, at a 662,000 annualized rate with revisions pulling down the prior two months ...Read More

Retail sales, Mtg apps, Housing starts, Industrial production, Wage growth tracker

Pretty much as expected. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation, which is running around 2%: Highlights Consumer spending was weak in the first quarter and the first look at the second quarter is no better than moderate. Total sales rose an as-expected 0.3 percent in April which pretty much tells the ...Read More

Las Vegas, Current account and currency

Yen: Euro: ...Read More

Macro review, Rig count, Redbook same store sales, Consumer credit, Philly Fed state index, Jolts

There is now growing evidence that the economy’s deceleration that followed the collapse of oil related capital expenditures at the end of 2014 continued for about two years after which it reversed course. This means the collapse in private sector deficit spending was replaced by other sources of deficit spending, some of ...Read More

Employment, Durable goods, Bank loans, Collections index, China phone sales

Economic intuitive sectors of employment were mixed with truck transport contracting. This month’s report internals (comparing household to establishment data sets) was inconsistent with the household survey showing seasonally adjusted employment expanding only 3,000 vs the headline establishment number expanding 164,000. The point here is that part of the headlines are from ...Read More