Author Archive
Motor vehicle sales, Factory orders
Economic Releases
Aug 02, 2018
Highlights Unit vehicle sales proved surprisingly weak in July, at a 16.8 million annualized rate vs 17.2 million in June. This is the lowest rate since August last year but it will be the comparison with June that will pull down forecasts for July’s retail sales report. Vehicles were a valuable contributor
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Vehicle sales, Mtg purchase applications, Construction spending, Payrolls, Tesla
Economic Releases
Aug 01, 2018
A lot worse than expected as sales are clearly going south: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.7 million annual rate in July Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#ZO2HJY5rKwX1XQfU.99 Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the July 27 week, posting the third weekly decline in a row,
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Personal income and spending, Pending home sales
Economic Releases
Jul 31, 2018
The benchmark revisions were substantial and the data now paints a very different picture: Highlights Easing inflation pressure along with healthy consumer vital signs is the message from the personal income & outlays report for June. Both price indexes, the overall and the closely watched core rate which excludes food and energy,
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GDP, World trade
Economic Releases
Jul 30, 2018
So the savings rate puzzle, where consumption was exceeding income, has now been reconciled with large upward revisions in personal income. And looks like the credit expansion that supplied the income and drove the spending was from non-residents. The next monthly consumption and income releases will bring it all up to date:
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Durable goods, Trade, Inventories, Apartment survey
Economic Releases
Jul 26, 2018
The tax cuts helped the economy though they were relatively small and largely low multiple, but tariffs are tax increases and work to reduce real consumption if income doesn’t also adjust. Also, there could have been some front running ahead of the dates the tariffs go into effect. This adds volatility to
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Mtg apps, Home sales, Soy beans, Puerto Rico employment, Iran comments
Economic Releases
Jul 25, 2018
Housing continues to roll over and is no negative year over year: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 1 percent in the July 20 week, while applications for refinancing increased by 1 percent from the previous week. Unadjusted, purchase applications were 2 percent higher than in the same
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Retail sales, Home buying index, Auto index, Summit statements
Economic Releases
Jul 16, 2018
Mixed bag again, as auto sales contributions are volatile in a generally softening auto market. And the Fed estimates the tax cuts and spending increases will add about .4-.5% to GDP this year. Also, the spending numbers are not inflation adjusted, and year over year cpi has been moving higher: Highlights Strong
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CPI, EM export growth, Corporate debt growth, QE
Economic Releases
Jul 12, 2018
Still looks to me like the rate increases have offered some support for the economy and also pushed cpi higher? Interest income channels? Forward pricing channels? ;) Corporate debt growth decelerating;
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Small business survey, Job openings and hires, Employment growth, Cycle comps
Economic Releases
Jul 10, 2018
Highlights The Small Business Optimism Index retreated by 0.6 points in June to 107.2, the sixth highest reading in the NFIB survey’s 45 years history. Beating the consensus forecast calling for a more substantial decline after May’s upward surge to the second highest level in the history of the survey, the optimism
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Employment, Auto sales, Japan
Economic Releases
Jul 06, 2018
Low wage growth tells me spending remains under pressure: Highlights A very healthy employment report that shows brisk growth and also a movement into the workforce is headlined by a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls for June which just tops Econoday’s consensus range. A sharp rise in the number of unemployed
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