Author Archive

Employment, optimism index, consumer credit, consumer price index

Slowly returning to the pre covid trend: Still below the pre covid trend line: ...Read More

Car sales, ISM Services, Atlanta Fed, energy recession chart

Low and slipping: GDP tracking at 0: ...Read More

Income expectations, NY manufacturing, industrial production, retail sales

Post war slowdown continues: Below the 2018 highs, but still growing from the covid dip: Adjusted for inflation, the slope is downward: ...Read More

Optimism indexes, mtg purchase applications

Post was slump continues: Mortgage applications and housing in general remains far weaker than it was when rates were far higher and the population was a lot lower as well: ...Read More

Employment, oil

Still slowly working its way back to the pre covid trend: New rigs continue to come online, but it won’t interfere with Saudi/Russian price setting until sufficient production comes online to reduce Saudi sales. And right now sales are going up, indicating that demand for oil at the Saudi’s prices is increasing, ...Read More

Private payrolls, durable goods orders, ISM services, Atlanta Fed

Fading, and this series is not inflation adjusted: Still high but falling fast: Still at only .1% GDP growth for Q1: ...Read More

Dallas Fed, China, Atlanta Fed, private fixed investment

Slumping: Post war slump there as well: Post war slump there as well: Off to a slow start: ...Read More

Personal income and spending, consumer sentiment

Still fading: Still not looking like an excess demand problem: Might be the slowing income growth? ...Read More

New homes sales, PMI, Chicago Fed, recovery tracker

Covid dip, recovery, and now settling back at prior levels. After years of ultra low mortgage rates growth remains slower and absolute levels far below the prior cycle: Post war slowdown narrative continues to unfold: “The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to -0.15 in December 2021 from an ...Read More

Unemployment claims, existing home sales, architecture billings, housing starts

Signs of a post war slump continue: ...Read More