Author Archive
GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales
Economic Releases
Oct 29, 2020
Partial recovery but recent data shows growth stalling while a large gap (unemployment) persists as tariffs, covid, and no additional fiscal support continue: The gap initially closed relatively quickly, but progress has slowed:
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Durable goods, Covid, Gasoline supplied
Economic Releases
Oct 27, 2020
Still trending lower: More testing AND the % positive is up as new cases and deaths, which lag new cases, increase: Weakening:
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New home sales, Chicago Fed survey, Lumber prices, US survey
Economic Releases
Oct 26, 2020
Trump looks to be losing by a substantial margin at the moment, which means to me that there won’t be a fiscal adjustment before January’s new Congress, and without a sufficient majority in the Senate all initiatives may be blocked indefinitely. Most likely new home sales at best return to their pre
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Mtg purchase apps, Housing starts, Small business jobs
Economic Releases
Oct 21, 2020
Becoming clear housing isn’t doing all that well:
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Vehicle sales, Retail sales, Industrial production
Economic Releases
Oct 16, 2020
Monthly sales rates peaked in 2016 when oil capex collapsed, then leveled off, then started sliding again with the tariffs, then collapsed with the covid shock, and have nearly recovered to the lower levels: As with vehicles, the rate of monthly sales has recovered to prior levels, but sales lost during the
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Unemployment, Small business, China exports
Economic Releases
Oct 15, 2020
Still way high and moved up again- not good! The survivors are feeling a bit better:
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Consumer sentiment, job openings, trade, new US covid cases
Economic Releases
Oct 06, 2020
Up a bit but still way down overall: Familiar pattern. Down big, partial recovery, downtrend resumes: And weak from covid and the tariffs: Moving in the wrong direction as flu season approaches:
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Vehicle sales, real estate loans
Economic Releases
Oct 05, 2020
Still very weak: Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 4.3% from last year. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.34 million SAAR. Sales-to-date are down 18.8% in 2020 compared to the
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Employment, durable goods orders
Economic Releases
Oct 02, 2020
Leveling off at very low levels of total employment: This is not adjusted for inflation:
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