Author Archive

GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales

Partial recovery but recent data shows growth stalling while a large gap (unemployment) persists as tariffs, covid, and no additional fiscal support continue: The gap initially closed relatively quickly, but progress has slowed: ...Read More

Durable goods, Covid, Gasoline supplied

Still trending lower: More testing AND the % positive is up as new cases and deaths, which lag new cases, increase: Weakening: ...Read More

New home sales, Chicago Fed survey, Lumber prices, US survey

Trump looks to be losing by a substantial margin at the moment, which means to me that there won’t be a fiscal adjustment before January’s new Congress, and without a sufficient majority in the Senate all initiatives may be blocked indefinitely. Most likely new home sales at best return to their pre ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Housing starts, Small business jobs

Becoming clear housing isn’t doing all that well: ...Read More

Vehicle sales, Retail sales, Industrial production

Monthly sales rates peaked in 2016 when oil capex collapsed, then leveled off, then started sliding again with the tariffs, then collapsed with the covid shock, and have nearly recovered to the lower levels: As with vehicles, the rate of monthly sales has recovered to prior levels, but sales lost during the ...Read More

Unemployment, Small business, China exports

Still way high and moved up again- not good! The survivors are feeling a bit better: ...Read More

Jobless claims, electricity production

...Read More

Consumer sentiment, job openings, trade, new US covid cases

Up a bit but still way down overall: Familiar pattern. Down big, partial recovery, downtrend resumes: And weak from covid and the tariffs: Moving in the wrong direction as flu season approaches: ...Read More

Vehicle sales, real estate loans

Still very weak: Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 4.3% from last year. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.34 million SAAR. Sales-to-date are down 18.8% in 2020 compared to the ...Read More

Employment, durable goods orders

Leveling off at very low levels of total employment: This is not adjusted for inflation: ...Read More