Author Archive

Personal income and spending, Chicago PMI, corporate profits, Comments on tax reform

Income a bit higher than expected due to higher interest income, but as per the charts income growth has slowed and seems the only thing keeping spending growing even at these very modest levels is consumers dipping into savings: Highlights Inflation is showing the slightest bit of life yet probably more than ...Read More

GDP, Profits, Pending home sales, Mtg purchase apps

First revision has the consumer a bit weaker than expected, which means the savings rate isn’t quite as weak as initially reported. The savings rate, however, is still unsustainable weak, meaning either consumer spending falls further or personal income growth reverses its deceleration. The other revisions include an increase in already too ...Read More

Trade, New home sales chart, Redbook retail sales, Consumer confidence

As previously discussed, the food export spike was a one time event: Highlights With housing and manufacturing showing strength the outlook for fourth-quarter GDP was building, until that is this morning’s advance trade and inventory data. October’s goods deficit was much higher-than-expected, at $68.3 billion for a very sizable $4.2 billion increase ...Read More

New home sales, Bank lending, Philly Fed state coincident index

A better than expected, but somewhat peculiar details, and note the approximate average over the last 4 months. And maybe some tax related buying? Last month, new single-family homes sales soared 30.2 percent in the Northeast to their highest level since October 2007. Sales in the South increased 1.3 percent also to ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Durable goods orders

I don’t see any convincing evidence of a housing market revival, particularly with the growth of real estate lending remaining well below that of last year: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 5 percent in the November 17 week, though overall mortgage activity was only barely higher (by ...Read More

Existing home sales, Chicago Fed, Commercial real estate prices, Bank lending

Up a touch more than expected, but still down year over year: Up a bit for the month but the chart shows the weakness vs prior cycles: No improvement yet: ...Read More

Industrial production, Household debt, Business sales and inventories, Container counts, Animal trophies

A dip and a recovery due to the hurricane (as per vehicle sales data), chugging along at modest rates of growth, and still down from high a couple of years back, not adjusted for inflation: The NY Fed reports household debt growth decelerated in q1, in line with the deceleration in bank ...Read More

Retail hiring, Container count, Truck sales

October Retail Hiring Lowest In Six Years from Challenger Gray and Christmas Fewer major retailers have announced large-scale hiring announcements so far this year, which reflects the drop in the number of October employment gains in the sector. Gains fell 8 percent from last year to 136,700, the lowest October gain since ...Read More

Credit check, Commercial real estate index, Unemployment, Margin debt

Still no sign of a rebound: Home prices rising about 6% annually and loans now growing at under 4% annually looks in line with at best flat housing sales: Looks like the blip up as hurricane destroyed vehicles were replaced has run its course: This had looked like it peaked a couple ...Read More

JOLTS, Consumer credit, Tax cuts, Market cap chart, 55+ housing index, MMT conference closing remarks

Note that hires and quits have stopped growing, and historically both lead job openings, in yet another indication that this cycle has reversed: Highlights September job openings edged up slightly to a very abundant 6.093 million from a revised 6.090 million in August. Over the month, hires and separations were also little ...Read More