ADP sees the private payroll reading in Friday’s employment report coming in at 178,000. But ADP has been wild lately, evident in its sharp 33,000 upward revision to June which is now at 191,000. Econoday expectations are calling for 175,000 in private payroll growth in Friday’s report and 178,000 in total nonfarm payroll growth.
ADP private falling off since year end:
The now strong euro seems to be keeping a lid on prices via a drop in import prices. Looks to me like this time around the falling dollar is more likely to result in deflation abroad rather than inflation here at home. Also, with China keeping its currency relatively stable vs the dollar and weaker vs the euro, seem like China is targeting the euro area for exports:
By Lucia Mutikani
Aug 1 (Reuters) — Euro zone prices at factory gates grew in June at their slowest pace this year. Eurostat said industrial producer prices in the 19-country currency bloc increased 2.5 percent on the year in June, slowing from an upwardly revised 3.4 percent rise in May and a 4.3 percent surge in April. Headline inflation was stable at 1.3 percent in July, far from its 2.0 percent peak reached in February, according to preliminary estimates released by Eurostat this week. On the month, prices eased in June by 0.1 percent, in line with market expectations. In May industrial prices went down by 0.3 percent on the month, slightly less than the 0.4 percent fall previously estimated by Eurostat.
No rebound in mortgage purchase apps this week:
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier to its lowest level since March 2017. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago. …
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#AA1sVKDFp3qYGrIX.99
Confirmation of weakening loan demand by domestic US banks, though some of the deceleration was due to foreign bank competition:
from the Federal Reserve
The July 2017 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months. This summary discusses the responses from 76 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks.
Regarding the demand for C&I loans, a moderate net share of domestic banks reported that demand from large and middle-market firms weakened, while a modest net share of banks reported that demand from small firms did so. The reported reasons for weakening loan demand were less concentrated than the reasons for having eased standards. Each of the following reasons for weaker demand was cited by at least half of the banks that reported weaker demand: shifts in customer borrowing to other bank or nonbank sources and decreases in customers’ needs to finance inventory, accounts receivable, investment in plant or equipment, and mergers or acquisitions.
Questions on commercial real estate lending. On net, domestic survey respondents indicated that their lending standards for all major categories of CRE loans tightened during the second quarter. In particular, a moderate net fraction of banks reported tightening standards for construction and land development loans and loans secured by multifamily residential properties, while a modest net share of banks reported tighter standards for loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties.
Banks also reported that demand for CRE loans weakened during the second quarter. A modest net fraction of banks reported weaker demand for construction and land development loans and loans secured by multifamily residential properties, while demand for nonfarm nonresidential loans remained basically unchanged on net.
Meanwhile, a modest net share of foreign banks reported tightening standards for CRE loans. Also, in contrast to the domestic respondents, a significant net share of foreign banks indicated that demand for CRE loans strengthened in the second quarter of 2017.
Not much happening here as Saudis continue to set price via their discounts to benchmarks, and let their output be demand determined:
Race to the bottom to see which party can make the stupidest proposals: