Euro Area current account, Cass freight index, NY Fed

This is persistent, strong euro medicine that ‘absorbs’ the portfolio selling that’s been going on for over 2 years. And the lack of inflation and tight fiscal policy tell me it will persist until currencies adjust sufficiently to shift the balance:

Euro Area Current Account

Eurozone’s current account surplus rose to €32.8 billion in October 2016 from €30.9 billion in the same month a year earlier. The services surplus widened to €8.2 billion (from €2.4 billion a year earlier) and the primary income surplus increased to €8.8 billion (from €4.6 billion). Meanwhile, the goods surplus narrowed to €27.0 billion (from €33.7 billion in the previous year) and the secondary income deficit went up to €11.2 billion (from €9.8 billion). If adjusted for seasonal factors, the current account surplus rose to €28.4 billion compared to €24 billion in October 2015.

Another indicator that shows the US could have already gone into recession:


GDP forecast revised lower:

December 16, 2016: Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2016:Q4 and 1.7% for 2017:Q1.
  • This week’s news had a negative effect on the nowcast, pushing down the Q4 and Q1 measures by about 0.7 percentage point each.
  • The largest negative contributions came from capacity utilization and industrial production data as well as housing data, which were only partly offset by a positive contribution from survey data.
  • Border Adjustability: The House Republican Blueprint proposes to convert the corporate income tax into a destination-based cash flow taxation system that would ‘border adjust’ by not taxing revenues from exports and disallowing deductions for the cost of imports. The economic effects of such a policy are similar to an export subsidy combined with an import tariff of equal size.