Apartment market tightness, Euro area trade surplus, Spain


This just keeps going up, which fundamentally tends to drive up the euro which tends to continue to be subject to said upward pressure until the trade picture reverses:

Euro Area Balance of Trade

The Eurozone trade surplus increased to €23.6 billion in November of 2015 compared to a €20.2 billion surplus a year earlier. Exports recorded the highest annual gain in four months and imports rebounded.

Potential showdown that could drive up Spanish rates:

Guindos Ditches Pledge on Spain Deficit to Push Growth

By Maria Tadeo

Jan 14 (Bloomberg) — Spanish finance chief Luis de Guindos ditched his promise to meet European Union budget goals saying shoring up economic growth is more important for his country’s future.

De Guindos said worrying about whether the budget deficit comes in a few tenths of a percentage point above the country’s 4.2 percent target for 2015 would be a distraction from the fundamental challenge of protecting the economic recovery.

“What is important is to maintain the pace of growth of the Spanish economy,” he told reporters on Thursday before meeting euro-area finance ministers for the first time since December’s general election left the parliament divided between four major parties.

“The biggest risk for budget policy is that the Spanish economy slows down,” de Guindos added.

Spain risks being drawn into a clash with the European Commission which has been warning since October that the spending plans acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy pushed through ahead of the election don’t do enough to curb the currency union’s biggest budget shortfall. Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who saw off a challenge from de Guindos to hang on to his job last year, said this month that Spain won’t be allowed any more flexibility over its target, according to El Pais newspaper.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Dijsselbloem said Brussels would “wait for the outcome of the domestic political process,” before taking further action.