By Steve Hansen
Oct 15 — The data for this series continues to be less than spectacular – and both imports and exports are in contraction. The year-to-date volumes are contracting for both exports and imports. We can safely say trade is in a recession.
Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).
Imports were down 6% year-over-year in September; exports were down 7% year-over-year.