Q3 GDP estimates hovering around +3%

Current estimates for Q3 GDP are hovering around +3%.

So how wrong can they be? Well, the actual range on Bloomberg is from 1.2-4%

And here’s the April 30 release for Q1, with estimates ranging from +.5- 2.0. The latest revision has it at -2.1.

Just saying it’s not uncommon for estimates to be off by a full 3% or more!


Highlights
Economic growth came to a standstill in the first quarter, largely due to adverse weather slowing production. First quarter GDP rose a meager 0.1 percent annualized after a 2.6 percent gain in the fourth quarter. The advance estimate fell well short of market expectations for a soft 1.1 percent rise.

Posted in GDP

Preview of Friday’s employment report

The household survey has been in decline for several months, with lower highs and lower lows:

Same with the non farm payroll report:

Analysts are counting on Friday’s report showing August being revised up substantially and September payrolls to be up over 200,000.

Anything could happen, of course, but something less than that would be in line with the narrative about the 1.2 million who lost benefits at year end taking menial jobs best they could earlier this year, causing those prints to be higher than otherwise, etc.

Case-Shiller housing price index

Looks to me like this business cycle is over?

This is a lack of demand story.

The FICA hike in Jan 2013, followed by the sequesters in April, and the aggressive automatic fiscal stabilizers doing their thing to reduce govt net spending add up to the walls coming in on the economy:

S&P Case-Shiller HPI


Highlights
Home prices were contracting sharply in July, down 0.5 percent for the third straight decline and the steepest monthly decline in Case-Shiller 20-city seasonally adjusted data going all the way back to November 2011. The reading is below the low end of the Econoday consensus and far below the 0.1 percent gain that was expected. The year-on-year rate, which has been coming down steadily all year from the low double digits, is at plus 6.7 percent for the lowest reading since November 2012 and down sharply from 8.0 percent in June.

Fourteen for the 20-city sample show declines in the month with Chicago and Minneapolis showing the most severe declines, at minus 1.6 percent in the month. Three cities show no change leaving three with gains led by Las Vegas at only plus 0.3 percent.