ECB relying export driven growth through euro depreciation

Note below that he states it’s the fx channel that the ECB is relying on to support aggregate demand.

Good luck to them, it doesn’t work that way!!!

From the speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Annual central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, 22 August 2014:

Boosting aggregate demand

On the demand side, monetary policy can and should play a central role, which currently means an accommodative monetary policy for an extended period of time. I am confident that the package of measures we announced in June will indeed provide the intended boost to demand, and we stand ready to adjust our policy stance further.

We have already seen exchange rate movements that should support both aggregate demand and inflation, which we expect to be sustained by the diverging expected paths of policy in the US and the euro area (Figure 7). We will launch our first Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation in September, which has so far garnered significant interest from banks. And our preparation for outright purchases in asset-backed security (ABS) markets is fast moving forward and we expect that it should contribute to further credit easing. Indeed, such outright purchases would meaningfully contribute to diversifying the channels for us to generate liquidity.

Charts on labor force participation rates- not good!

Hard to believe there isn’t a lot of slack indicated here.

Note that it’s always gone up during an expansion, until now:


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And isolating the ‘prime working age’ removes the ‘aging factor’


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In fact, the chart for ‘over 55’ shows the overall drop in participation didn’t come from this group, and, seems, their participation would have gone up in a ‘normal’ recovery:


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And who would have thought a weak demand would hurt these groups first/hardest…
Certainly not in America…


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And, while down dramatically, look how high this has been and still is:


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But maybe the clue to why the subject is getting all the attention this time around lies here?

Just saying…


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For all men the rate’s been falling for a long time, with the recent drop less noticeable.

And it used to be over 85%!


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Add this and you have the appearance that (lower cost?) women have been replacing (higher cost?) men for a long time now?


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Enough to make the point.

Unlike all prior recoveries, this recovery continues to fail to keep up with population and productivity growth

Which is the evidence that the federal budget deficit is far to low for current financial condition.

That is, the output gap remains extreme and, if anything, is growing, as out government continues to fail its electorate.