Retail sales, credit expansion review, Empire manufacturing

Still looking like a macro constraint/fading aggregate demand. Strong auto sales, for example, coincides with less of something else:

And this is the so called retail sales ‘control group’ that excludes food, gas, building materials and autos:

This market for loans overall remains subdued indicating banks getting a share of what was the ‘shadow bank’ business.

And the growth rates are generally well below prior cycles:

Meanwhile, manufacturing, a relatively small part of the economy, keeps chugging along, with overall output/industrial production most often growing at about 3-4% year over year:

Manufacturing activity is accelerating sharply, at least in the New York region based on the Empire State index which is at a very strong 25.60 in the July reading. New orders are very strong at 18.77, up from an already strong 18.36 in June, as are shipments at 23.64. Employment is a special positive, at 17.05 vs 10.75 in June.

Other readings, however, are less favorable with unfilled orders in contraction at minus 6.82. Price readings show some pressure with input prices at plus 25.00 and finished prices up about 2.5 points to 6.82. Optimism is also down as the 6-month general conditions index fell more than 10 points to 28.47.