Draghi on the euro

Draghi says a stronger euro would trigger looser ECB policy (Reuters)

Except by my calculations he has it backwards, as lower rates make a currency like the euro stronger, not weaker, via the interest income channels, etc.

ECB President Mario Draghi said that euro appreciation over the last year was an important factor in bringing euro zone inflation down to its current low levels, accounting for 0.4-0.5 percentage point of decline in the annual rate, which stood at 0.5 percent year-on-year in March. “I have always said that the exchange rate is not a policy target, but it is important for price stability and growth. And now, what has happened over the last few months is that is has become more and more important for price stability,” Draghi said at a news conference. “So the strengthening of the exchange rate would require further monetary policy accommodation.

As above.

If you want policy to remain accommodative as now, a further strengthening of the exchange rate would require further stimulus,” he said.

I agree, except I’d propose leaving rates at 0 fiscal relaxation to the point of domestic full employment, etc.

Furthermore, their policy of depressing domestic demand to drive exports/competitiveness has successfully resulted in growing net exports. However, unless combined with buying fx reserves of the targeted market areas, the euro appreciates until the net exports reverse, regardless of ‘monetary policy.’

CBO estimates lower deficits as health subsidies fall

As suspected Obamacare doesn’t add to the deficit, otherwise the Republicans would have let us know for sure!

However, it also means it’s a pro active contractionary bias that will make it that much harder for GDP growth to meet expectations this year.

CBO estimates slightly lower deficits as health subsidies fall

April 14 (Reuters) — U.S. budget deficits over the next decade will be $286 billion less than previously estimated, the Congressional Budget Office said on Monday, attributing much of the decline to lower estimates of subsidy costs under President Barack Obama’s health insurance reform law.

The non-partisan CBO, in revisions to its annual budget estimates, said the fiscal 2014 deficit would fall to $492 billion from $514 billion estimated in February. The forecasts assume no changes to current tax and spending laws.

The agency attributed the current year’s decline to technical revisions to the way it estimates spending on discretionary programs. But from fiscal 2015 onwards, it estimates a $186 billion decline in outlays for health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare.

This reflects a lower projection of premiums charged for health care plans offered through government-run exchanges, CBO said, based on an updated analysis of plans now being offered.

Overall, the budget referee agency now projects cumulative 10-year deficits at $7.62 trillion compared to its previous forecast of $7.9 trillion.

In addition to the lower health insurance subsidy costs, CBO also estimated a $98 billion 10-year reduction in Medicare outlays due to lower spending on prescription drugs and hospital insurance. Medicaid, the health care program for the poor, would see a $29 billion reduction, CBO said.

CBO lowered its 10-year cost estimate for the federal food stamps program by $24 billion, based on new data from the Department of Agriculture on monthly average benefits.

But the CBO left intact its previous economic projections, which envision rising deficits after 2015 as more of the massive “baby boom” generation retires or drops out of the workforce.

Deficits will reach a low point of $469 billion, or 2.6 percent of U.S. economic output, in 2015, then gradually start to rise, topping $1 trillion again in 2023 and 2024.

U.S. deficits exceeded that dollar amount during each of the first four years of Obama’s administration as the economy recovered slowly from the worst recession since the 1930s, falling to $680 billion in fiscal 2013.

retail sales charts

Headline retail sales y/y with 3 mma:


Full size image

3 month moving average nudged up to 2.5% which is a relished move as sales catch up from losses due to weather. But it’s going to take more months like this one to reverse what looks like a longer term trend towards lower levels.

Note however that Red Book and Goldman retail sales reports, though ‘minor’ indicators, haven’t shown much strength.

You can see the dip and recovery of the monthly prints on this graph: