Early in 2013 my narrative was the tax hikes as well as the subsequent sequesters were likely to cause growth to slow to maybe a 2% rate from what might have otherwise been a 4% rate, with downside risk from there.
Take a look at the charts below and notice how these key elements of the economy seemed to ‘go sideways’ during 2013.
And, unfortunately, real disposable personal income took a hit as well and doesn’t look to me like it can support any kind of ‘bounce back’:
(the last yoy print is ‘exaggerated’ by the ‘outlier’ a year earlier, but the trend is clear to me)
[note from poster: apologize for format- should be amended shortly]