comments on GDP

Q2 revised up to 2.5 with higher exports and higher inventories.

Higher inventories can be either voluntary or involuntary, but in any case either unlikely to repeat and can reverse subsequently. And sustaining higher net exports is also problematic with the dollar spiking vs yen and now most other emerging market currencies. And at the same time spiking oil prices increase US import expenditures.

And consumption growth at only 1.8 looks to be decelerating as well.

So with the narrative of govt reductions of net spending needing to be offset by either some other agent spending more than his income, or output goes unsold, we have the foreign sector reducing net exports and unsold inventories in reaction to reduced govt.

And so far it looks to me like Q3, again in line with the narrative, is facing some serious downside risk.