Posted by WARREN MOSLER on January 9th, 2013
Lending by state banks there- shelling out funds without much concern about getting them back- is functionally a lot like deficit spending here, and both probably have similarly high multiples as well.
So while ‘normal’ deficit spending is reportedly going up in China, temper that by this kind of decrease in ‘shadow’ deficit spending.
January 9 (Bloomberg) — Chinas bank loans as a share of funding in the economy may have fallen to a record low, highlighting the growth of alternative financing channels that have prompted warnings of rising credit risks.
New yuan loans probably dropped 14 percent last month from a year earlier, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey of 37 analysts ahead of data due by Jan. 15. That would give bank lending a 55 percent share of aggregatefinancing for 2012, based on UBS AG estimates, the least in figures dating to 2002.
The decline underscores the waning ability of official loan data to capture the scale of debt in the worlds second-largest economy as borrowers and investors turn to less-regulated, higher-return shadow-banking products. The Peoples Bank ofChina is putting greater emphasis on aggregate financing and the International Monetary Fund says the growth of nonbank credit poses new challenges to financial stability.
Chinas economic performance in 2013 will be significantly affected by how seriously Chinese regulators are going to treat non-bank financing, said Shi Lei, a Beijing- based analyst with broker Founder Securities Co., who has provided research advice to Chinas securities regulator. While a hands-off approach will help the economy, a crackdown would be really bad for growth.
The PBOC lending figures are among December data in the coming days that will show whether an economic rebound that began in September picked up or slowed last month after a seven- quarter growth slowdown. Trade figures due tomorrow may show exports rose at a faster pace and a Jan. 11 report may indicate inflation accelerated.