Clinton says budget deal critical to U.S. global role, security

In case you thought Hillary had a clue:

Clinton says budget deal critical to U.S. global role, security

By David Brunnstrom

November 17 (Reuters) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Saturday that reaching a deal to resolve America’s budget crisis is critical to its global leadership and national security and would bolster efforts to project U.S. economic power around the world.

Speaking in Singapore during a tour of Asia and Australia, Clinton said that when she was in Asia last year during the height of debate about the U.S. debt ceiling, leaders from across the region asked her if the U.S. Congress would actually allow the United States to default on its debt.

“Let’s be clear,” she said. “The full faith and credit of the United States should never be in question.”

However, Clinton, who spoke at Singapore Management University, said that with Washington gearing up for another round of budget negotiations, she was “again hearing concerns about the global implications of America’s economic choices”.

She said that despite all the differences between the U.S. political parties, “we are united in our commitment to protect American leadership and bolster our national security”.

“Reaching a meaningful budget deal is a critical to both,” she said. “It would shore up our ability to project economic power around the globe, strengthen our position in the competition of ideas shaping the global marketplace, and remind all nations that we remain a steady and dependable partner.

“For us, this is a moment to once again prove the resilience of our economic system and reaffirm America’s leadership in the world,” Clinton said, stressing that U.S. leadership depended on its economic strength.

“Global leadership is not a birthright for the United States or any nation. It must be constantly tended and earned anew.”

U.S. President Barack Obama and his Republican rivals are in talks aimed at avoiding what has been dubbed a “fiscal cliff” at the year-end, which experts say could push the U.S. economy back into recession.

If Congress cannot agree to less extreme steps, from Jan. 2, about $600 billion worth of tax increases and spending reductions, including $109 billion in cuts to domestic and defense programs, will begin to kick in.

Both sides are eager to reassure the public that Washington will not see a repeat of the white-knuckle budget standoff that spooked consumers and investors last year, and Republican and Democratic congressional leaders emerged from a meeting with Obama on Friday pledging to find common ground to avert the fiscal cliff.

“HISTORY BEING WRITTEN”

Clinton said responding to threats would remain central to U.S. foreign policy, but could not be Washington’s only foreign policy.

Maintaining U.S. strength would require following through on a policy of intensified engagement with the Asia-Pacific region and elevating the role of economics in foreign relations.

Clinton said the visit of Obama to Asia from Sunday – within days of his Nov. 6 reelection – showed the importance of the region in U.S. eyes. Obama will visit Thailand, Cambodia to attend an East Asian summit, and Myanmar.

“Why is the American president spending all this time in Asia so soon after winning reelection?” Clinton asked. “Because so much of the history of the 21st century is being written here.”

Clinton said the United States was making progress in talks with countries on both sides of the Pacific towards finalizing a Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, which would lower barriers and raise regulatory standards in a region accounting for 40 percent of world trade.

“We will continue to work with Japan and we are offering to assist with capacity building so that every country in ASEAN can eventually join,” she said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Clinton said the United States would welcome the interest of any country willing to meet the standards of the TPP – including China, where some view the pact with suspicion and as a U.S. attempt to contain China’s rapid growth, something U.S. officials deny.

The United States, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei agreed this year to let Mexico and Canada into the negotiations, which could reach a conclusion next year. Japan’s prime minister said this month he wants to enshrine backing for the pact in his party’s election platform.

Clinton said that with the U.S. government working to bring down trade barriers and create a level playing field for U.S. firms, it was also up to them to raise their game abroad.

“Too many are sitting on the sidelines,” she said. “I hear it over and over when I travel: ‘Where are the American businesses?’ At a time when America’s domestic growth depends more than ever on our ability to compete internationally, this has to change.”

Rehn on Spain says no more pain…

Sorry about the title
Couldn’t help myself…
;)

No further austerity for Spain, says Rehn

November 15 (FT) — Spain will need no further austerity measures until the end of next year even though it will easily miss its deficit targets, EU economic commissioner Olli Rehn, said. We are not so much focused on the nominal targets, even though they often make easier headlines because they are exact percentages, Mr Rehn said. To my mind, [it is] both the right way of doing it from an economic point of view but also the correct way of applying [EU rules]. He added that Spain must still do more in 2014, when Madrid is required to get its budget deficit, which was 11 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of last year, down below the EU threshold of 3 per cent. Spain was supposed to reduce its deficit to 6.3 per cent of GDP this year and 4.5 per cent next year.

more on the cliff

Stocks down again yesterday but interestingly bond yields up a tad, dollar down a tad, oil and metals up, and even long BMA ratios holding steady, etc.

The cliff isn’t nearly as large and threatening as the debt ceiling cliff would have been in 2011 if that thing hadn’t been extended, and we’d gone cold turkey into an immediate and forced balanced budget. But that event is the stock market’s ‘recent memory’ of stock market reaction functions.

And this time GDP is being supported by a private sector credit expansion/housing expansion, with private debt service ratios substantially lower due to cumulative federal deficits adding to nominal ‘savings’. And the federal deficit remains well above 5% of GDP, which historically has been more than enough to reverse a recession.

And then there’s the election factor. Post election I’m hearing (anecdotally) distraught Romney supporters thoroughly convinced the President is a ‘socialist’ bent on destroying capitalism, taxing the rich ‘job creators’ and giving it to what Romney called ‘the 47%’ dependent class, etc. etc. etc. Merits of this ‘belief’ aside, it looks to me it’s driving portfolios to shift out of equities. However, if not supported by an actual decline in earnings, which is how I see it, it’s all a case of ‘pushing on a spring’.

Yes, the euro zone is a problem, with Q3 GDP just reported at -.1%. But that’s an ‘improvement’ from q2’s -.2% as larger deficits are acting counter cyclically to cushion the austerity driven decline. And Rehn was just quoted on Spain favoring not adding to austerity measures, perhaps indicating a move to ‘let it be’ for a while, which will allow GDP to stabilize at modestly positive levels.

And China is no longer going backwards, so that negative has been reversed as well.

Back to the cliff, in fact letting tax rates go up for high income earners should have little effect on GDP, as the marginally propensity to spend for that segment is reasonably low. (of course that means there’s no point in taxing that income in the first place, but that’s another story). Nor does it mean investment or employment will suffer since investment is driven by sales prospects. And with higher tax rates, and business expense tax deductible, the after tax cost of investment goes down with higher tax rates. For example, in the 70’s, when my tax rate was around 70%, I clearly recall making very high risk investments figuring it was better than giving 70% to the govt. Point is, taxing income and savings that isn’t going to be spent is about social engineering, and not ‘funding the deficit’ or altering aggregate demand, and is intellectually honestly framed as such. So point here is, I score the effect of raising the highest tax rates at 0 regarding aggregate demand.

This all supports my take that the stock market has over discounted the cliff, partly for ideological reasons, partly due to the recent memory of what stocks did during the debt ceiling debacle, and partly from fear of what’s going on in the rest of the world.

So as we get through it all with modest top line and earnings growth continuing, I’m looking for valuations to quickly return to at least where they were before the election.

Whitney Tilson: ‘I Love the Fiscal Cliff’

A bit of equal time for the Democrats, as they join forces with the Republicans to hike unemployment and lower GDP, with all forecasters in agreement.

But I do thinks markets and the economy have already discounted at least most of it:

Whitney Tilson: ‘I Love the Fiscal Cliff’

By Bruno J. Navarro

November 9 (CNBC) — The so-called “fiscal cliff” is a good thing for Washington because it will force both Democrats and Republicans to cede ground on core issues, Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners said Friday on CNBC.

Tilson, a supporter of President Barack Obama and fundraiser for his re-election campaign, said that he expected resolution of the “fiscal cliff” would involve increasing taxes and eliminating deductions, as well as one important area: “Democrats are going to have to touch the third rail for them, which is entitlements, and Obama, I think, is willing to do that,” he said on “Fast Money.”

“Every Democrat I talked to is willing to do that, but only in the context of Republicans giving on the tax and deductions side aimed more at wealthiest folks in this country who are the ones that can afford to give more.”