Mafin 2012 Genova, Italy presentation

Very good!
One suggestion, in caps:

In reality, BECAUSE AN OVERDRAFT AT A CENTRAL BANK *IS* A LOAN FROM THAT CENTRAL BANK, central banks have no option other than supplying the amount of reserves banks require to settle payments through standard operations, bilateral lending, or intra-day overdrafts.

Yet, it can unilaterally set the interest rate on reserves borrowing and reserves holding.

Revising the quantity theory of money in a financial balance approach

JPM Household wealth report

The unemployment line is the evidence the federal deficit is too small given conditions.
This at least partially explains why the full employment deficit is much larger this time around:

From JP Morgan:

Executive Summary

Households lost $16 trillion worth of wealth during the crisis from late 2007 to early 2009, but they have recovered 70% of the loss since then.

However, the recovery has been uneven across wealth groups. The wealth of the top 10% has fallen back to 2004 levels, but median wealth has fallen back to 1992 levels, in real terms.

As a result wealth inequality has increased sharply after the crisis, which may have some effect on the upcoming elections.

Across age groups, the 25- to 44-year old group has experienced the most significant wealth losses after the crisis. This has been primarily due to house price declines, as younger households are more leveraged in housing.


House prices are not expected to revert back to pre crisis levels in real terms for a very long time. If younger households decide to rebuild their lost housing wealth, this will have long term growth implications.

We estimate that the 25- to 44-year old group has lost $2 trillion housing wealth and rebuilding this lost wealth over 10 years implies that GDP growth will be 1.3 %-pt less than it otherwise would be.

This may explain the slow demand growth we have experienced following the crisis.

Crude price update

It’s about what price the Saudis want.

No telling what they are thinking, but the demand for their output remains high at about 10 million bpd.

Note that WTI supply tightened, indicating the Seaway pipeline is working down the oversupply in Cushing.

And refiners are coming back online after the storm shutdowns:

“While total U.S. crude stockpiles gained, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the West Texas contract traded on Nymex, declined for a second week by 274,000 barrels to 43.8 million, the lowest level since April. Stockpiles of gasoline and of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, declined. Refinery operating rates rose to 88.9 percent from the previous week’s 84.7 percent as plants resumed units idled when Hurricane Isaac made landfall on Aug. 28.”