Comments on: August Payrolls-Stall Speed

By: Steve Bongardt

Steve Bongardt — Mon, 10 Sep 2012 14:18:55 +0000

Thanks, @Ivan. So that is the only thing that goes into the adjustment? I had no idea – thought maybe the numbers get clearer because of better or updated data but that was just the naive side of me. So if updated information has the number of companies increasing, the number goes up and conversely if the number of companies goes down it goes down.

Seems like not a lot of utility there. @ESM – I was wondering about all adjustments, not just August.

By: Security Guard Class 4

Security Guard Class 4 — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 16:21:57 +0000

@Ed Rombach, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-analyze-fed-not-printing-enough-money

Zerohedge finally gets “in paradigm”, realizes we need to deficit spend 42 trillion MORE dollars into the economy to get growing.

By: Ed Rombach

Ed Rombach — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 15:43:37 +0000

@WARREN MOSLER, At least that would be something new. If QE3 is simply the same in practice as QE1&2, then it runs the risk of running into diminishing returns, which were minimal to begin with. The result could end up being just the opposite of past experience. The fed would run the risk that market participants might use it as an opportunity to sell equities, commodities and credit. Anyone who has been listening to your argument that QE drains interest income away from the economy may be inclined to buy the rumor and sell the news. I don't think Bernanke wants to be exposed as an emperor without clothes.

By: WARREN MOSLER

WARREN MOSLER — Sat, 08 Sep 2012 19:22:24 +0000

karim wrote it. it’s possible they could target rates

By: Art Patten

Art Patten — Sat, 08 Sep 2012 16:43:25 +0000

Interesting stats, thanks Karim!
http://symmetrycapital.net/index.php/blog/2012/09/heck-of-a-soft-patch-but-recovery-still-intact/

By: ESM

ESM — Sat, 08 Sep 2012 03:57:29 +0000

@Ivan, Haven't checked this to make sure, but I read recently that the seasonal adjustment for August is zero, or at least it was last year. I think the payroll number is basically worthless anyway. I think the household survey is much, much better, although the market doesn't agree.

By: Ivan

Ivan — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 19:42:39 +0000

@Steve Bongardt, The numbers are seasonally adjusted with company birth death adjustments that basically make them worthless. ADP is a far better gauge of private sector employment. Seems that the govt should be able to provide us their numbers quite easily. We don't need seasonal adjustments. We can figure it out.

By: Steve Bongardt

Steve Bongardt — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 18:24:42 +0000

What I worry about – as always are the revisions – and by that I mean the bias it implies. If anyone is trying to be accurate on predicting any number – shouldn’t your trend over time tend to be an equal number of revisions up and down within a certain standard deviation or bell curve??? I have not done the stats work but my feeling is the down revisions greatly out number the up revisions. Of concern is – this is the same entity that we are trusting to give us the heads up on inflation, which is a lagging indicator anyway??? Any thoughts?

By: Ed Rombach

Ed Rombach — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 15:39:20 +0000

“The data increases the chances of QE3, unsterilized and possibly open-ended purchases of Agency MBS and USTs, but I still think later in the year. An open-ended program likely requires a consensus Fed economic forecast, which is still a work-in-progress. Next week’s FOMC meeting will be contentious, and a close call, however.”

By open-ended purchases, do you mean that the fed might begin targeting rate as opposed to quantity?