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Archive for July 6th, 2012

more hints euro zone gdp may be stabilizing

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 6th July 2012

A couple of more hints deficits may be high enough for stability and even a bit of positive GDP growth:

German Industrial Production Increased More Than Forecast in May

By Jana Randow

July 6 (Bloomberg) — German industrial output rebounded more than economists forecast in May as construction buttressed Europe’s largest economy against the sovereign debt crisis.

Production rose 1.6 percent from April, when it dropped 2.1 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast an increase of 0.2 percent, the median of 36 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. Production was unchanged from a year earlier when adjusted for working days.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates to a record low yesterday as the worsening debt crisis threatens to tip the euro area, Germany’s largest export market, into recession.

While German business and investor confidence have slumped amid signs growth is slowing, record-low unemployment and demand from outside the region have helped insulate the economy. Factory orders unexpectedly rose 0.6 percent in May, the Economy Ministry said yesterday.

“German factories are still doing quite well, but we’ll see some skid marks as a result of the euro region’s debt crisis in the coming months,” said Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. “In the euro area, everything points toward recession and the global economy has slowed to an extent that it can’t compensate for the weakness in Europe.”

Manufacturing output gained 1.8 percent in May, driven by a 3.8 percent jump in production of consumer goods, today’s report showed. Investment goods production rose 1.7 percent and construction activity was up 3.1 percent.

France’s Trade Deficit Narrowed in May to 5.3 Billion Euros

July 6 (Bloomberg) — France’s trade deficit narrowed 7.7 percent in May as exports rose.

The deficit in May was 5.325 billion euros ($6.6 billion) compared with 5.77 billion euros in April, the country’s customs office said in an e-mailed statement.

Exports rose 1.3 percent from the previous month to 37.44 billion euros while imports rose 0.1 percent to 42.77 billion euros.

For the first five months of the year, the deficit narrowed 10 percent from the same period a year ago to 29.4 billion euros

Airbus exported 22 planes for 1.58 billion euros during May, compared with 28 planes for 2.23 billion euros the previous month.

Posted in EU, Government Spending | 8 Comments »

June Employment Data (U.S. and Canada)

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 6th July 2012

Good for stocks and bonds,

Not so good for people, apart from the lower gasoline prices.


Karim writes:

June Employment Data (U.S. and Canada)
U.S.

  • Headline payroll growth of 80k in line with other Q2 employment readings and a clear loss of momentum in job gains from Q1.
  • The report was a positive from a personal income standpoint, however, as the components of the income equation, Hourly Earnings (+0.3%) and Aggregate Hours (0.4%) were both strong.
  • The hours data in particular suggests demand was running at reasonable levels but forward uncertainty may have restrained hiring.
  • Weather related sectors did bounce back: Net change in construction of +33k in particular. There may have been some seasonal issues in education as that sector had a net change of -55k.
  • Other key metrics were generally stable: The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2%, the labor force participation rate was unchanged, the median duration of unemployment fell from 20.1 weeks to 19.8 weeks, and the Diffusion Index dropped from 59.8 to 57.9
  • This is the last payroll number before the next Fed meeting. In what should be a close call, Twist 2 will likely be maintained.

Canada

  • Very modest growth in employment in June (7.3k). Equivalent to about 75k in the U.S., population-adjusted.
  • Y/Y growth in Canadian employment is exactly 1%. Combined with modest productivity growth, current GDP trends appear similar to the U.S., about 1.5-2.0%.

Posted in Employment | 13 Comments »

Japan economy may run out of cash by October

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 6th July 2012

Monkey see, monkey do:

Japan economy may run out of cash by October

July 6 (VANCOUVER SUN) — Japan’s government could run out of money by the end of October, halting all state spending including salaries, pensions and unemployment benefits, because of a standoff in parliament that has blocked a bill to finance the deficit.

The deficit financing bill, which would allow the government to sell bonds needed to fund almost half of the budget, has languished in parliament as the ruling Democratic Party tussles with opposition parties that can use their control of the upper house to reject legislation.

Posted in Japan | 3 Comments »