Monthly Archives: January 2012

Payrolls

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In case you missed this.

From GS:

MAIN POINTS:
1. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200k in December, a larger gain than the consensus had expected. Part of the strong gain reflected a 42k increase in employment for “couriers and messengers”, which likely reflects temporary employment for holiday gift delivery persons. A similar spike occurred last December and was reversed in the following month, indicating that the payroll statistics are not properly seasonally adjusting for this type of hiring. Taking this into account, December employment growth was still firmer than the preceding two months, but the underlying trend is likely still below 200k.

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Europe Agrees to Ban Imports of Iran Oil; No Date Set

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The European leadership’s grasp of market forces is even worse than I had imagined.

Unless they somehow cut back on oil consumption, and no one else buys from Iran,
Iran’s sales and prices received don’t change:

Europe Agrees to Ban Imports of Iran Oil; No Date Set
Published: Wednesday, 4 Jan 2012 | 1:01 PM ET
By: Reuters

 
European governments have agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian oil, EU diplomats said Wednesday, dealing a potentially heavy blow to Tehran just months before an Iranian election.

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French pro growth formula

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This is their idea of pro growth:

In a speech given in Paris on January 3rd, the President of France Nicolas Sarkozy confirmed that the country will soon see an increase to the national rate of value added tax and a reduction to the mandatory social security contributions paid by employers.

http://www.taxationinfonews.com/2012/01/president-confirms-tax-hike-in-france/

This is on top of the increase in the reduced rate of VAT in France (from 5.5% to 7%) that was announced earlier.

An increase in standard VAT rate (19.6%) in France (even though still under consideration), could have quite a significant impact on EU HICP and FR CPIx

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EU Officials Begin New Year With Calls to Save and Consolidate

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Ominous start for the new year:

EU Officials Begin New Year With Calls to Save the Euro
Published: Sunday, 1 Jan 2012 | 5:49 PM ET
By: Reuters

 
Policymakers marked the 10th anniversary on Sunday of the introduction of euro notes and coins by urging governments in the currency bloc to save and consolidate to overcome their debt crisis.

 
While German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called the euro “a clear success story” and pledged the currency would remain stable, he also urged vulnerable debtor states to follow a tough savings course in 2012, boost their competitiveness and work to win back market confidence.

 
“This is not a euro crisis, it is a debt crisis in some euro states,” Schaeuble told German newspaper Bild in an interview to be published in Monday’s edition of the paper.

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Posted in EU