Peter Schiff Show

Warren will be on the Peter Schiff Show tomorrow, 11/17/2011, at 10:33 am EST.

Find your local station here, to listen live.

Or stream here.

Otherwise this loop will play for 24 hours after the conclusion of the show.

Topic:

>   
>   As for topics, I thought we could talk about your piece on inflation failing to manifest
>   despite the dire warnings.
>   

Japan’s Hidden Jobless Hits 4.69mn, Worse Than After Lehman Shock

Japan’s Hidden Jobless Hits 4.69mn, Worse Than After Lehman Shock

November 16 (Nikkei) —The number of Japanese that want to work but are not actively seeking employment has surpassed levels from after the global financial crisis erupted, according to government data released on Tuesday.

Some people have given up searching for work because they believe that the jobs they desire are not available. Known as hidden unemployment, such individuals are not reflected in official unemployment statistics, which cover those actively hunting for jobs by going to employment centers, for example.

The hidden jobless in Japan jumped by 190,000 from a year earlier to 4.69 million in the July-September quarter, excluding the three prefectures hit hardest by the March 11 disaster, the Internal Affairs Ministry said.

The figure is nearly 70% larger than the number of officially unemployed people. It is also higher than the 4.61 million in the July-September quarter of 2009, when the employment market deteriorated sharply after the financial crisis.

Of the hidden jobless, the number of women grew by 60,000 while men surged by 130,000. Asked why they are not seeking work, more people replied that there are no jobs that match their skills or their desired conditions such as pay and work hours. The strong yen and concerns over power shortages are seen as factors resulting in a dearth of openings for good jobs.

The number of unemployed people fell 430,000 on the year to 2.77 million for the July-September quarter, excluding the three disaster-hit prefectures. Of this figure, those that have been out of work for at least a year declined by 190,000 to 1.03 million, down for the second straight quarter. While this suggests that fewer people are without work over the long term, some may have exited the employment market by giving up on the job search.

Republicans, fearing Greece, agreeing to tax hikes

Shows the Republicans truly do fear the US becoming the next Greece,
as they begin to lean towards tax hikes.

Meanwhile, they continue keeping us on the road to Japan.
Or worse.
A lot worse.

Republicans Consider Breaking No-Tax Vow as Deadline Looms

By Brian Faler

November 15 (Bloomberg) — For Senator John Cornyn, it was the situation in Greece.

The Texas Republican said he is willing to back tax increases as part of a major deficit-reduction deal because he fears the European debt crisis could spread to the U.S.

“We’ve never been in this spot before,” said Cornyn, who also leads his party’s effort to elect more Republicans to the Senate. “We’re looking over at Europe and what’s happening in Greece and Italy — we risk having another huge financial crisis in this country, and we’ve got to try to solve the problem.”

He is one of a growing number of Republicans, many with otherwise impeccable anti-tax credentials, who say they are willing to raise taxes to reach a big deficit-reduction deal with Democrats.

That may help insulate them from charges of stubbornness if Congress’s bipartisan supercommittee doesn’t meet its Nov. 23 deadline to find a way to cut $1.5 trillion. For now, it’s helped shift Washington’s debate to how much, rather than whether, to raise taxes.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, a North Dakota Democrat, said he is encouraged by the shift even as Democrats scoff at a specific Republican proposal.

“It’s a step in the right direction for them to just rhetorically cross that line,” said Conrad.

‘Real Trouble’

Asked if Republicans were trying to set up a blame game should the supercommittee fail, Conrad said, “I hope not” because “if we aren’t beyond that, we are in real trouble.”

Democrats say the Republican deficit plan relies too heavily on spending cuts and would give the wealthy too much of a tax break. Some question whether its numbers add up.

At issue is a proposal by the supercommittee’s Republicans to trade permanent cuts in income tax rates, with the top rate dropping to as little as 28 percent, for new limits on deductions, exclusions and other tax breaks. They estimate that it would produce $300 billion to reduce the deficit.

The plan’s principal author is Senator Pat Toomey, a Pennsylvania Republican who previously led the Club for Growth, a Washington anti-tax group. House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, today endorsed the proposal, calling it a “fair offer.”

Some conservative organizations are accusing Republicans of trying to hide tax increases through the Toomey plan.

Norquist Reaction

“Closing tax loopholes is all well and good,” said Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist in an opinion article in Politico. “But doing so to raise revenues is just as much a tax hike as raising tax rates.” He added, “Any congressman who wants to keep his promise to voters to oppose tax increases” must oppose the plan.

Many Republican lawmakers are also unhappy with the proposal. “We don’t have a tax problem — we have a spending problem,” said Senator Jim DeMint, a South Carolina Republican. “For us to get lulled into ‘how much to raise taxes’ in this thing is foolish.”

Senator Orrin Hatch, the top Republican on the tax-writing Finance Committee, said, “Some of these loopholes really aren’t loopholes.” He called them “important policy provisions, like the home interest mortgage deduction.”

Republican supporters of the plan say they are trying to lock in lower income-tax rates that will otherwise jump if, as is currently scheduled, the tax cuts enacted in President George W. Bush’s administration expire at the end of next year. President Barack Obama opposes extending the Bush-era cuts for those earning more than $250,000, and Republicans are unlikely in the 2012 elections to win the Senate votes they would need to keep the tax cuts in effect.

‘Biggest Tax Increase’

“What we’re trying to do is avoid the biggest tax increase in the history of the country,” Senator Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican, said of Toomey’s plan.

Toomey declined to comment other than to point to a Nov. 10 Wall Street Journal editorial quoting him as calling his proposal a “bitter pill” that is “justified to prevent the tax increase that’s coming.”

A number of Republicans are playing down anti-tax pledges they signed with Norquist’s group. “We take an oath to uphold the Constitution” and “that trumps any and every consideration,” said Cornyn.

“I didn’t know I was signing a marriage vow,” said Representative Mike Simpson of Idaho, one of 40 House Republicans who recently signed a letter signaling willingness to raise taxes as part of a major deficit-cutting deal.

Shifting Opinion

Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, the chamber’s third- ranking Republican, said he saw a sign of shifting opinion when three of the supercommittee Republican members — Toomey, Rob Portman of Ohio and Arizona’s Jon Kyl — briefed Senate colleagues on their plan and no one complained.

“For Pat Toomey and Portman and Kyl to come in and tell a whole roomful of Republicans that ‘we’ve put $250 billion of tax increases on the table’ and not get a murmur of dissent is remarkable,” said Alexander.

Senator Saxby Chambliss, a Georgia Republican, said his party’s lawmakers should consider bigger tax increases if it would lead to a larger debt-reduction deal, because the political price they would pay will essentially be the same.

“You’re going to be criticized by the same people irrespective of what the number is,” said Chambliss.

Retail Sales/Empire/PPI/Evans- GDP remains firm

As previously discussed, GDP looks to be growing sequentially, and should do fine next year if fiscal policy doesn’t tighten.

But still not so good for people working for a living, pretty good for corporate earnings.

And risks remain- Europe, China, Super Committee, etc. etc.

And look for a relief rally if Europe all agrees the ECB writes the check,
followed by a sell off due to the austerity that accompanies it.


Karim writes:

Data confirms Q4 GDP growth tracking 3.25%.; slight boost to Q1 estimate; more like 2.75% vs 2.5% previously.

RETAIL SALES

  • Up 0.5% headline and 0.6% control group
  • Iphone 4s definitely helped as electronics sales rise 3.7% for the month, largest gain since 11/09

EMPIRE

  • Rises to 6mth high of 0.6 from -8.48 in October; but 0.6 still weak historically.
  • Also, new orders and employment component both soften in the month.

PPI

  • Pipeline pressures receding as -0.3% headline, -0.4% on consumer goods, -1.1% intermediate stage, and -2.5% crude stage

EVANS AND BULLARD

  • Evans advocating 3% inflation target and linking policy guidance to unemployment/inflation objective
  • Also acknowledges he is ‘sufficiently outside’ consensus at the Fed
  • Bullard rejects linking policy to numerical objectives and states would need to see evidence of deterioration in U.S. economy to support additional easing

A note from S&P’s John Chambers

This makes me sleep a lot better…

November 15, 2011

Dear Warren,

On Nov. 11-12, I spoke at the Caixin Summit 2011 in Beijing on the subject of who will solve the debt crisis. My comments pertained to the euro area and to the rest of the world, and I stated that, in Standard & Poor’s view:

  • External imbalances are as much at the root of the current crisis as fiscal imbalances;
  • Better coordination among international policymakers can help to attenuate these external imbalances;
  • Prior domestic economic reforms will facilitate coordination;
  • Generally, a high level of financial claims is more of a symptom of past failures to reform than the disease itself;
  • If international cooperation and economic reform come up short (which is not our base case), global growth could sputter, public and private sector indebtedness could remain high, and some speculative-grade sovereigns could resolve their fiscal difficulties through default.

Standard & Poor’s believes that what is taking place in the euro area, in several respects, is a microcosm of what is happening globally.

To read my full comments, please click here to access the article.

Please contact me with any comments or questions.
Sincerely,

John Chambers
Chairman of the Sovereign Ratings Committee

Trading Desk reports “mayhem” in the AAA Eurozone markets

I just received this.
Seems money managers with fiduciary responsibility are holding off on buying any euro member securities since the 50% Greek haircuts were announced.

Our Trading Desk reports “mayhem” in the AAA Eurozone markets
– France 11bps wider
– Netherlands 6bps wider
France now 178bps over Germany
Increasing talk/fear of Eurozone break up and capitulation trades in AAA markets are widespread.
We are seeing no real demand for anything – even Germany.
Tomorrow’s Shatz auction looks a big ask with a yield of 30bps and no risk appetite out there.

Korea Exports decline

Not wrong to think ‘falling off a cliff’ after reading this.

Global demand is softening as public sector deficit spending remains insufficient to offset the relatively low levels of private sector ‘borrowing to spend’:

S.KOREA REVISED OCT EXPORTS +8.0 PCT YR/YR VS PROVISIONAL +9.3 PCT REPORTED EARLIER
S.KOREA SAYS OCT EXPORTS TO EU FALL 20.3 PCT YR/YR, SHARPEST DROP SINCE SEPT 2009
S.KOREA SAYS OCT EXPORTS TO U.S. FALL 3.6 PCT YR/YR, SHARPEST DROP SINCE DEC 2009
S.KOREA SAYS OCT EXPORTS TO CHINA RISE 14.6 PCT YR/YR, SLOWEST GROWTH SINCE APRIL

Comment From Reader

Neil says:

In 1847 Ignaz Semmelweis showed that the washing of hands in a chlorinated lime solution reduced the incidences of death in surgery.

It conflicted with the established orthodoxy at the time and he was ridiculed for it. It took over 25 years before Surgeons started to wash their hands before Surgery. In the meantime countless unlamented people died at the hands of dirty Surgeons who thought they knew better.

It led rise to a term – the ‘Semmelweis reflex’ – a metaphor for a certain type of human behaviour characterized by reflex-like rejection of new knowledge because it contradicts entrenched norms, beliefs or paradigms.

How many unlamented individuals are to die due to the Semmelweis Reflex in economics?

China News

Reads to me like policy is moving back towards growth and ‘inflation?’

I don’t expect runaway inflation but enough to continue to fundamentally continue to weaken the currency.

China’s currency has been fundamentally weakened for the last couple of years, while being supported vs the dollar by foreign investment, speculation, and what looks to me like the indirect expenditure of dollar reserves. Should the currency starts falling against the dollar it will tell me those factors have run their course.

Hu Pledges More China Imports as IMF’s Zhu Sees ‘Soft Landing’
China’s Stocks Rise Most in 3 Weeks on Bank Loans, CPI Outlook
China’s Hu pushes for larger global role
Obama warns Hu of U.S. frustrations on trade
Major yuan rise no cure for U.S. economic ills-China’s Hu
China’s Imports Rise Sharply, While Export Growth Slows
China New Loans Rise More Than Expected in Loosening Signal
Former China Banking Regulator Says China 2011 Growth Above 9%
China’s economy on right track: IMF
IMF See Little Decrease in Incentives for Saving in China
Former PBOC Adviser: China’s Economy May Grow 8%-8.5% Annually Over Next 10 Years – Report
China’s Property Market Experiencing ‘Soft Landing’, Fan Says