Monthly Archives: August 2011

Ch News

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More slowing noises.

Jury still out on possible hard landing (GDP under 6%), and elements of the ongoing inflation fight sustains downside risks as well. The cuts in deficit spending and state lending hurt the economy, as the higher interest rates from the bank of china keep upward prices on inflation.

And lots of miguided comments below as well.

Public investment is entirely sustainable, for just one example, but because they believe it’s not, they seem to be trying to move away from it. For example, it’s perfectly ‘sustainable’ (moral hazard issues, efficiencies, etc. aside) to build housing and give it away for no charge.

Analysis: China unlikely to cool investment as its growth engine

Excerpt:

In spite of global clouds, most economists still expect China to grow well above 8 percent in 2012. That is in line with the market refrain that China won’t have a hard landing. A Reuters poll in mid-July showed economists think 2012 growth will be 8.8 percent, well above Beijing’s 7 percent growth target.

REBALANCING, SOME DAY
Some of the 4 trillion yuan ($626 billion) stimulus package announced in 2008 was squandered on ill-advised projects and economists now worry that a sizable fraction of loans to local governments won’t be repaid.

Banks may be wary of extending more large loans, making it difficult for local governments to invest their way to growth in the future.

Last week alone, China halted new railway projects and cut its building target for public housing by 20 percent to 8 million units for 2012, from 10 million.

Yet, economists say little has changed in reality.

China’s bullet trains may be a beguiling metaphor for its rapid urbanization, but rail investment accounted for just a paltry 1.9 percent of total fixed asset investment in the first six months of this year.

If anything, some economists argue Beijing is most likely to increase investment in housing if it decides to stimulate growth in coming months.

HOMES PRICED OUT OF REACH
Soaring property prices have put homes out of reach for many ordinary Chinese, and that has become a source of public ire. Keenly aware of that, Beijing wants to build more public homes to keep them affordable.

And with the real estate market accounting for a quarter of total investment in the first half of this year, China could get decent bang for its buck if it ramps up spending in the sector.

Judging by Beijing’s recent remarks on monetary policy, it appears that China is ready to pause its 10-month policy tightening campaign as rain clouds gather over the world economy.

Alongside wide expectations that China’s inflation is near its peak after hitting a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July, many analysts think Beijing is ready to support economic growth if needed.

To be sure, Beijing says it wants to cure China of its penchant for investment-driven growth. Under its broad five-year economic plan starting from 2011, it envisions a fairer Chinese economy where consumption climbs on rising incomes.

But the grand plan drew skepticism when it was unveiled as it was short on details on how changes would come about.

FEW BIG SPENDERS
Many analysts have said that Chinese consumers cannot pull their weight as big spenders because the bulk of national income goes to the state instead of workers. A flimsy social safety net encourages high saving rates.

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MMT to Ryan- Apologize NOW about the US being the next Greece

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Congressman Ryan’s response to the President Obama’s State of the Union address included
something we’ve all hear a lot of ever since.

He warned along the lines that that the US could become the next Greece,
and be faced with some kind of a sudden financial crisis,
where the world would no longer lend to us,
interest rates would skyrocket,
and the US,
unable to spend,
would be down on it’s knees before the IMF begging for the needed funding.

And no one with any kind of national public forum took issue with him.
Including the President and the Democrats in Congress,
who for all appearances quietly agreed and acted accordingly.

Well, today, based on the near universal response to the S&P downgrade,
everyone now knows, or should know,
there is no such thing as the US becoming the next Greece.

The overwhelming response to the S&P downgrade by everyone from Buffet to Greenspan, and
most every financial and academic economist in the world was along the lines of:

The US is the issuer of the dollar.
It can print dollars.
So it can always make timely payments without limit.

THERE IS NO SOLVENCY ISSUE FOR THE US.
There is no such thing as the US running out of dollars to spend.
There is no such thing as the US being dependent on taxing or borrowing to get dollars to spend.

Greece is very different.
Greece, Ireland, Italy, and all the euro member nations, corporations, and households can’t print euro,
any more than the US states, corporations, and households can print dollars.
And so they are all indeed dependent on revenues from somewhere to be able to spend.

So, Congressman Ryan, please apologize NOW for being so wrong and so misleading.

There is no solvency risk for the US.
The Fed is price setter for the interest rates for the US government and the banking system, not the market,
just like the European Central Bank sets the interest rates for its banking system and its own debt.

Congressman Ryan,
your reasons for deficit reduction have vaporized.

You see,
the risk of overspending is inflation,
not solvency.

So if you want to argue for deficit reduction,
apologize NOW,
regroup,
and come back with your next round of fear mongering
about how the deficit can be inflationary,
or something like that,
and see how that flies.

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China’s Economic Growth Targets Cut at Daiwa, Inflation Raised

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A hard landing may be in progress as data continues to soften.

I’m still thinking July and August data will be telling.

China’s Economic Growth Targets Cut at Daiwa, Inflation Raised

August 14 (Bloomberg) — China’s 2012 GDP growth target was cut to 8.5 percent year-on-year from 9 percent at Daiwa Capital Markets, which “weaker external demand growth” and to the government’s “recent efforts” to lower investment growth.
A double-dip recession in Europe and the U.S. would affect growth “even more negatively,” while China would be “unlikely” to announce a big stimulus package, analysts at Daiwa led by Mingchun Sun wrote in a report dated Aug. 12. They raised their 2011 consumer-price inflation forecast to 5.4 percent year-on-year from 4.9 percent.
They also revised down their 2012 export growth forecast to 10 percent year-on-year from 15 percent and lowered their import growth target to 13 percent from 18 percent.

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Swiss currency issues

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Gnomes need MMT too, even thought they would undoubtedly try to punch holes in it…

Yes, currency intervention works. It’s what I call ‘off budget deficit spending’ and there are no nominal limits.

But seems they haven’t yet figured out that a tax cut and/or spending increase would do the trick all the better re: the currency, domestic demand, and employment.

Swiss Producer & Import Prices Drop Further In July

August 15 (RTTNews) — Switzerland’s producer and import prices decreased at a faster pace in July, data released by the statistical office showed Monday.

The producer and import price index dropped 0.6 percent year-on-year in July, faster than the 0.4 percent decrease recorded in June.

The producer price index decreased 0.8 percent annually during the month, while the import price index fell by 0.1 percent.

On a monthly basis, the producer and import price index decreased 0.7 percent during the month. There was a 0.4 percent monthly decline in producer prices, and a 1.1 percent decrease in import prices during the month.

Swiss Government, SNB in ‘Intense’ Talks, SonntagsZeitung Says

By Simone Meier and Matthias Wabl

August 15 (Bloomberg) — The Swiss government and the central bank are in “intense” talks about a possible franc target to stem currency gains, SonntagsZeitung newspaper reported, citing unidentified people close to the situation.

The plans are “ready” and the Swiss National Bank may set such a target in “coming days,” the newspaper reported yesterday. The discussions are focused on the government’s role and an “appropriate plan” may be adopted on Aug. 17, it said. Walter Meier, a spokesman for the SNB, declined to comment.

SNB policy makers, led by Philipp Hildebrand, have been seeking ways to deter investors from piling into the franc and stop the currency’s ascent to near parity with the euro. While the central bank boosted liquidity in money markets and cut borrowing costs to zero, lawmakers from the People’s Party to the Christian Democrats have signaled their support for tougher measures to protect the economy and avert job losses.

“The SNB is ‘leaning against the hurricane’ in a major way,” Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange Ltd. in London, said in an e-mailed note today. While the central bank is probably “still looking for a better entry point to initiate a new round” of currency purchases, it “will have a very difficult time limiting the extent of the franc strength.”

The franc traded at 1.1404 versus the euro at 9:45 a.m. in Zurich, down 2.9 percent from Aug. 12. It reached a record of 1.0075 on Aug. 9. Against the dollar, the currency was at 79.74 centimes, down 2.5 percent.

October Vote

Lawmakers, facing elections in October, have become increasingly concerned that the franc’s strength will erode exports and hinder growth. Consumers became more pessimistic about the economic outlook and job prospects in July and investor confidence slumped. The government held an extraordinary meeting on the franc on Aug. 8 and forecast growth to weaken over the coming months.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in an e-mailed note on Aug. 5 that cut its Swiss economic-growth forecasts for this year and next to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent and to 0.6 percent from 2 percent, respectively.

Christophe Darbellay, head of the Christian Democrats, said in a telephone interview on Aug. 12 that the party supports the SNB and called for “extraordinary measures.” People’s Party Vice President Christoph Blocher, who previously objected to currency purchases, said policy makers need to use all tools to fight a “war.”

Secret Meeting

While the SNB is formally independent, the government may comment on a target to make such a step “as efficient as possible,” the newspaper said. The SNB may introduce an initial lower limit of slightly above 1.10 versus the euro before gradually increasing it, SonntagsZeitung reported, citing insiders.

Swiss Economy Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann led a secret meeting in Bern on Aug. 2 with leaders including Swatch Group AG Chief Executive Officer Nick Hayek and Credit Suisse Group AG Chairman Urs Rohner to discuss the franc, Neue Zuercher Zeitung am Sonntag reported yesterday, without saying where it got the information. The participants all agreed to support the SNB weakening the currency, it said.

Andre Simonazzi, a government spokesman, confirmed that the franc will be on the agenda when the Cabinet meets on Aug. 17 in Bern. The government is in close contact with the SNB and Hildebrand also attended the extraordinary session last week, he said. He wouldn’t comment on possible measures.

‘Several Hundred Billions’

SNB policy makers have been reluctant to start purchasing foreign currencies to weaken the franc after intervention attempts in the 15 months through mid-June 2010 sparked a record loss of $21 billion last year.

Lukas Gaehwiler, head of UBS AG’s Swiss operations, told SonntagsZeitung in an interview that the SNB has “better chances of success” with interventions, given the current exchange rate. Policy makers would have to be ready to spend “several hundred billions of francs or more,” he said.

“The SNB is wary of currency interventions given that they were not very successful the last time,” said Ursina Kubli, an economist at Bank Sarasin in Zurich. Still, “with the franc moving closer to parity, a lot of measures are becoming more realistic.”

Swiss Franc Slides Amid Speculation of Target-Setting; Yen Falls

By Keith Jenkins and Kristine Aquino

August 15 (Bloomberg) — The Swiss franc fell against the euro and headed for its biggest three-day decline since the European currency’s 1999 debut on speculation Switzerland will take further action to counter recent gains.

The franc slid for a fourth day versus the dollar after the SonntagsZeitung newspaper said the Swiss government and the central bank are in “intense” talks over setting a target for their currency. The yen dropped the most in a week against the euro after Japan’s Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda indicated he’s ready to intervene in foreign-exchange markets again.

“The market is rightly nervous about what’s likely to come from the Swiss authorities as they have a track record of going down more unconventional policy steps,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “If the steps will be enough to reverse the Swiss franc’s strengthening trend remains to be seen, but at these levels of overvaluation, which are very extreme, the risk-reward is more favorable in their way.”

The franc tumbled 1.6 percent to 1.12642 per euro at 7:12 a.m. in New York, from 1.10857 on Aug. 12, after rallying to a record 1.00749 on Aug. 9. The Swiss currency has slid 8.7 percent over the past three days, the most in 12 years. The franc declined 1.3 percent to 78.81 centimes per dollar after advancing to a record 70.71 centimes on Aug. 9.

Yen Versus Euro

The yen declined 0.4 percent to 109.78 per euro and depreciated 0.1 percent to 76.79 per dollar after climbing to 76.31 on Aug. 1, approaching its post-World War II record of 76.25 set on March 17. The 17-nation euro increased 0.3 percent to $1.4279.

The franc has soared 12 percent in the past three months and the yen added 3.5 percent, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The currencies have gained as debt crises in Europe and the U.S. boosted demand for safety.

The Swiss National Bank may set a target for the currency in “coming days,” SonntagsZeitung reported. Talks are focusing on the role of the government and an “appropriate plan” may be adopted Aug. 17, the newspaper said.

SNB policy makers, led by Philipp Hildebrand, have been seeking ways to stop the franc’s ascent to almost parity with the euro. While the central bank boosted liquidity in money markets and cut borrowing costs to zero, lawmakers have signaled their support for tougher measures to protect the economy.

‘Shock-and-Awe’

“The market is paying much more respect towards the idea that there’s some sort of shock-and-awe tactic being put together in Switzerland,” said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-largest lender. “It’s this fear of the unknown that has sparked a significant move” in the franc.

Gains have left the franc 41 percent too strong against the euro, according to an index developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris that uses relative costs of goods and services. It’s also the most overvalued currency against the dollar, at 49 percent.

The yen has risen beyond the level that prompted Japan to sell the currency on Aug. 4, its first intervention in foreign-exchange markets since March. A stronger yen reduces the value of overseas income at Japanese companies when converted into their home currency.

“An unstable situation is continuing,” Noda said yesterday during a television talk show on the public broadcaster NHK. “As foreign-exchange market matters are my prerogative, I will continue to closely watch the markets and take bold action if it becomes necessary.”

Japan’s Economy

Japan’s economy shrank at a 1.3 percent annual pace in the three months through June, the third quarter of contraction, government data showed today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.5 percent drop.

The euro rose for a third day versus the dollar on speculation a meeting tomorrow between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Paris may result in action to contain the region’s debt crisis.

The two leaders “will come out with something,” said Alex Sinton, senior dealer at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Auckland. “It may even be long-term viable. I suspect there’ll be a range broken this week.” Investors will be looking to sell the euro on rallies toward $1.44, Sinton said.

Foreign-exchange traders reduced bets against the dollar by the most on record as demand for Treasuries soared amid global growth concerns. Aggregate bets the greenback will weaken against the euro, the yen, the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars, the pound, the franc and the Mexican peso plunged by 154,105 contracts to 153,216 in the week ended Aug. 9, the biggest drop ever in Commodity Futures Trading Commission data compiled by Bloomberg beginning in November 2003.

Pound Outlook

Traders are betting on pound weakness even as the euro-area debt crisis deepens because of slumping consumer sentiment and a growth rate that may trail behind Germany’s by more than two percentage points in 2011, analysts in Bloomberg surveys said. Analysts cut forecasts for sterling versus the euro by 5.7 percent this year, the most of 17 developed-nation pairs tracked by Bloomberg.

The pound declined 0.2 percent to 87.66 pence versus the euro today and appreciated 0.2 percent to $1.6306.

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The Disruptor Algo

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Lots of public purpose here…

Subject: The Disruptor Algo

Perhaps this explains some of the craziness.

 

A Trillion Bytes of Data Friday Hides A Lot of Sins

Jon “DRJ” Najarian | ask-drj@optionmonster.com

 
Last night over 14 months after the Flash Crash, US regulators finally sent subpoenas to HFT firms. In light of that and the games that were played last week, I offer more insights into HFT from my friends at Nanex, which supports what our HeatSeeker saw as the quants had their way with the markets to the detrement of all investor classes:

 

On Friday, Aug 5, 2011, we processed 1 trillion bytes of data for all U.S. equities, options, futures, and indexes. This is insane. A year ago, when we processed half of that, we thought it was madness. A year before that, when it was 250 billion bytes, we thought the same. There is no new beneficial information in this monstrous pile of data compared to 3 years ago. It is noise, subterfuge, manipulation. The root of all that is wrong with today’s markets.

 
HFT is sucking the life blood out of the markets: liquidity. It is almost comical, because this is what they claim to supply. No one with any sense wants to post a bid or ask, because they know it will only get hit when it’s at their disadvantage. Some give in, and join the arms race. Others leave.

 
Take the electronic S&P 500 futures contract, known as the emini, for example. This is, or used to be, a very liquid market. The cumulative size in the 10 levels in the depth of book was often 20,000 contracts on each side. That means a trader could buy or sell 20,000 contracts “instantly” and only move the market 10 ticks or price levels. Even during the flash crash, before the CME halt, when hot potatoes were flying everywhere, the depth would still accommodate an instant sale of 2,000 contracts.

 
Not anymore. On Friday, 2,000 contracts would have sliced right through the entire book. Not during a quiet period, or before a news event. Pretty much any minute of trading that day after the 9:54 slide. And it wasn’t just Friday, the trend in the depth of book size has been declining rapidly over the last few week. What used to be the most liquid and active contract in the world, which served as a proxy for the true price of the US stock market for decades, is getting strangled by the speed of light, a weapon wielded by HFT.

 
Without going into detail at this time, we think we know one cause of the drop in liquidity. A certain HFT algorithm that we affectionately refer to as The Disruptor, will sell (or buy) enough contracts to cause a market disruption. At the same exact time, this algo softens up the market in ETFs such as SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA and other market index symbols and options on these symbols. When the disruptor strikes, many professional arbitrageurs who had placed their bids and offers in the emini suddenly find themselves long or short, and when they go to hedge with ETFs or options, find that market soft and sloppy and get poor fills. Naturally, many of these arbitrageurs realize the strategy no longer works, so they no longer post their bids and offers in the emini. Other HFT algos teach the same lesson — bids or offers resting in the book will only become liabilities to those who can’t compete on speed.

 
In summary, HFT algos reduce the value of resting orders and increase the value of how fast orders can be placed and cancelled. This results in the illusion of liquidity. We can’t understand why this is allowed to continue, because at the core, it is pure manipulation.

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comments on Krugman’s post

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Franc Thoughts on Long-Run Fiscal Issues

By Paul Krugman

August 11 (NYT) — Regular readers of comments will notice a continual stream of criticism from MMT (modern monetary theory) types, who insist that deficits are never a problem as long as you have your own currency.

Right, ability to pay is not an issue.

I really don’t want to get into that fight right now, because for the time being the MMT people and yours truly are on the same side of the policy debate. Right now it really doesn’t matter at all whether the United States issues zero-interest short-term debt or simply prints zero-interest dollar bills, and concern about crowding out is just bad economics.

Right.

But we won’t always be in a liquidity trap.

We don’t have one now. It’s a fixed fx concept at best.

But we won’t always be in a liquidity trap.

Someday private demand will be high enough that the Fed will have good reason to raise interest rates above zero, to limit inflation.

Yes, because they ignore the interest income channels.

And when that happens, deficits — and the perceived willingness of the government to raise enough revenue to cover its spending — will matter.

Yes, deficit spending adds to aggregate demand and nominal savings to the penny. Add too much and you get ‘demand pull inflation’

With fixed fx, that can drive up interest rates and threaten reserves. With floating fx it only causes the currency to fluctuate.

I have a specific example that illustrates my point: France in the 1920s, which I wrote about in my dissertation lo these many years ago. Like many nations, France came out of World War I with very large debts, peaking at 240 percent of GDP according to this recent IMF presentation (pdf, slide 17). And France was unable politically to raise enough taxes to cover the cost of servicing that debt. And investors lost confidence in the government’s solvency.

If it was a floating fx policy, interest rates would have been wherever the bank of france set them. If it was a fixed fx policy, rates would be market determined, as the tsy had to compete with the option to convert at the CB.

And taxes falling short of spending is the norm in most nations. Japan for example has one of the largest debts and deficits and one of the strongest currencies. So there’s more to it.

Various expedients were tried, including — late in the game — creation of monetary base, which was advocated by a finance minister on the (very MMT) grounds that the division of government liabilities between currency and short-term bills made no difference. But it turned out that it did: the franc plunged, and the price level soared.

He still hasn’t indicated whether it was a fixed or floating fx policy, and I don’t recall, so I can’t comment.

Now as it turned out this was just what the doctor ordered: because France’s budget problem was overwhelmingly the debt overhang rather than current spending, inflation eroded the real value of that debt and made possible the Poincare stabilization of 1926.

Yes, if a nation goes to a fixed fx policy at the’wrong’ price a further adjustment can address that, though it still doesn’t address the fundamental difficulties of living with a fixed fx policy.

So what does this say about the United States? At a future date, when we’re out of the liquidity trap,

that we aren’t in

public finances will matter — and not just because of their role in raising or reducing aggregate demand. The composition of public liabilities as between debt and monetary base does matter in normal times —

Yes, it determines the term structure of risk free rates.

hey, if it didn’t, the Fed would have no influence, ever.

True, and it doesn’t have much in any case, apart from shifting income between savers and borrowers and altering the interest income of the economy, which is a net saver to the tune of the govt debt, to the penny.

So if we try at that point to finance the deficit by money issue rather than bond sales, it will be inflationary.

Only under a fixed exchange rate policy, which we don’t have.

And unlike France in the 1920s, such a hypothetical US deficit crisis wouldn’t be self-correcting: the biggest source of our long-run deficit isn’t the overhang of debt, it’s the prospective current cost of paying for retirement, health care, and defense. So such a crisis — again, it’s very much hypothetical — could spiral into something very nasty, with very high inflation and, yes, hyperinflation.

Highly unlikely. It would probably take annual deficit of well over 20% to get that kind of inflation from excess demand.

Now, all of this is remote right now. And notice too that France in the 1920s stabilized with debt of 140 percent of GDP — far higher than the numbers that are supposed to terrify us now. So none of this is relevant to the current policy debate.

But since the MMTers seem to have decided to harass those of us who want stronger action now but think there really is a long-run fiscal issue, I needed to put this out there.

MMT explains the difference between fixed and floating fx policy.

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FED Dudley comments

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*DJ Fed’s Dudley: Drop In Market Rates A Plus For Economy

He forgets about the interest income channels

*DJ Dudley: US Economic Growth Slower Than Expected

Yes, but still higher than the first half, as recently revised

*DJ Dudley: Has Revised Down Expectations Of Growth

Yes, but still higher than the first half when corporate earnings were relatively strong

*DJ Dudley: NY Region Growing Faster Than Nation
*DJ Dudley: NY Region Has Grown At ‘Slow Pace’

Yes, and better than the first half, helped by auto production resuming after earthquake delays

Retail sales were ‘normal’

The 9% federal budget deficit continues to provide reasonably support for modest GDP growth

The Fed’s ‘forecast’ for unchanged rates for two years is just that. It’s their expectation for rates based
on their outlook.

And while the Fed’s outlook will change as conditions change, markets are not taking it that way.

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Connecting the dots- deficit reduction is now only about inflation, not insolvency

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From comments by Warren Buffet to Alan Greenspan,

And from all the responses to the S&P downgrade by economists and financial professionals from the four corners of the world,

THE WORD IS OUT!

The US government is the issuer of the US dollar.

So no matter how large the federal deficit might be:

The US government can always make any payments in US dollars that it wants to.
There is no such thing as the US govt running out of US dollars.
The US government always has the ‘ability to pay’ any amount of US dollars at any time.

NOW CONNECT THE DOTS TO:

The US is not dependent on tax revenue or foreign borrowing to be able to spend.

And,
whereas Greece is not the issuer of the euro,
much like the individual US states are not the issuer of the US dollar,

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE US BECOMING THE NEXT GREECE

There is no such thing as the US getting cut off from spending by the financial markets and forced to go begging to the IMF to get US dollars to spend.

Nor is the US government subject to market forces driving up interest rates on US Treasury bills.

EVEN AFTER BEING DOWNGRADED US TREASURY BILL RATES REMAIN NEAR 0%

Why, because, any nation that issues its own currency also sets its own interest rates.
So in the US, the Federal Reserve Bank votes on the interest rate

SO, THEN,

WHAT IS THE POINT OF DEFICIT REDUCTION?

Suddenly, it’s NOT solvency.
The US is suddenly NOT going broke.
Social Security is suddenly NOT broken.
There is suddenly NO risk the US will not be able to make all payments as promised.

So now,

the deficit hawks must CHANGE THEIR REASONS FOR DEFICIT REDUCTION
or shut up!

they must FLIP FLOP
or shut up!

Yes, there is a new reason they can flip flop to.

Inflation.

They can start claiming the current path of deficit spending will lead to inflation.

Fine.

Bring it on!

First, they need to do the research, as they haven’t even thought about this yet.

Then they have to convince Congress to cut social security and medicare
Not because we might become the next Greece
Not because the US government checks might bounce someday
Not because the deficit will burden our grand children

But ONLY because some day,
if we don’t do something when the time comes
and even though we don’t have an inflation problem now,
and haven’t had one in a very long time,
SOME DAY far in the future,
inflation might go from x% to y%.

Fine.

Do you think Congress would take draconian steps now,
during this horrendous recession,
to make things worse
by cutting Social Security?
and by cutting funding or public infrastructure?
and by raising taxes?

How about we get the word out and find out, thanks!

Please distribute!

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Jobless Claims Dip, Still in Range; Trade Deficit Jumps

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As previously discussed, the real economy seems to be muddling through, and at firmer levels than the first half of the year.

The trade report will probably result in Q2 GDP being revised down to just below 1%, but up from the .4% reported for Q1

So Q3 still looks like it will be at least as strong as q2 and likely higher with lower gasoline prices and Japan coming back some.

With corporate profits still looking reasonably strong, corporations continue to demonstrate they can do reasonably well even with low GDP growth and high unemployment.

And with a federal deficit of around 9% of GDP continually adding income, sales, and savings I don’t see a lot of downside to GDP, sales, and profits, though a small negative print is certainly possible.

Jobless Claims Dip, Still in Range; Trade Deficit Jumps

August 11 (Reuters) — New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a four-month low last week, government data showed on Thursday, a rare dose of good news for an economy that has been battered by a credit rating downgrade and falling share prices.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 395,000, the Labor Department said, the lowest level since the week ended April 2.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims steady at 400,000. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 402,000 from the previously reported 400,000.

The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday economic growth was considerably weaker than expected and unemployment would fall only gradually. The U.S. central bank promised to keep interest rates near zero until at least mid-2013.

Hiring accelerated in July after abruptly slowing in the past two months. However, there are worries that a sharp sell-off in stocks and a nasty fight between Democrats and Republicans over raising the government’s debt ceiling could dampen employers’ enthusiasm to hire new workers.

The continued improvement in the labor market could help to allay fears of a new recession, which have been stoked by the economy’s anemic growth pace in the first half of the year.

A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level claims data, adding that only one state had been estimated.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, slipped 3,250 to 405,000. Economists say both initial claims and the four-week average need to drop close to 350,000 to signal a sustainable improvement in the labor market.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid dropped 60,000 to 3.69 million in the week ended July 30.

The number of Americans on emergency unemployment benefits fell 26,309 to 3.16 million in the week ended July 23, the latest week for which data is available.

A total of 7.48 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during that period under all programs, down 89,945 from the prior week.

Trade Gap Grows

The US. trade gap widened in June to its largest since October 2008, as both U.S. imports and exports declined in a sign of slowing global demand, a government report showed on Thursday.

The June trade deficit leapt to $53.1 billion, surprising analysts who expected it to narrow to $48 billion from an upwardly revised estimate of $50.8 billion in May.

Overall U.S. imports fell by close to 1 percent, despite a rise in value of crude oil imports to the highest since August 2008. Higher volume pushed the oil import bill higher, as the average price for imported oil fell to $106 per barrel after rising in each of the eight prior months.

U.S. exports fell for a second consecutive month to $170.9 billion, as shipments to Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Central America, France, China and Japan all declined.

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