More on Jobless Claims
Posted by WARREN MOSLER on July 28th, 2011
From Goldman, this talk is making the rounds:
More on Jobless Claims
Some commentators are attributing the improvement in weekly claims to the fact that this year, the retooling of Auto plants have occurred over one week as opposed as the usual two weeks. This will imply a number in the region of 430,000 for next week.
July 28th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
that would explain it.
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Art Reply:
July 28th, 2011 at 4:50 pm
It’s typical to have a steep drop in mid-late July. We won’t know until at least Sept-Oct what the prevailing trend is.
http://symmetrycapital.net/index.php/blog/2011/07/initial-claims-nice-print-but-uncertain-outlook/
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Art Reply:
July 28th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
Sorry – we won’t know whether there’s been a break in the prevailing trend (which is currently higher/negative).
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July 28th, 2011 at 3:25 pm
State and local tax collections, except property taxes, are rebounding according to the Nelson Rockefeller Institute. This should, hopefully put an end to the mass layoffs in that sector.
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Art Reply:
July 28th, 2011 at 4:34 pm
@Ryan,
I wouldn’t bet on it:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=SLDEF
This seems to be a story that the headlines are consistently getting wrong (or I am!).
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