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More on Jobless Claims

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on July 28th, 2011

From Goldman, this talk is making the rounds:

More on Jobless Claims

Some commentators are attributing the improvement in weekly claims to the fact that this year, the retooling of Auto plants have occurred over one week as opposed as the usual two weeks. This will imply a number in the region of 430,000 for next week.

5 Responses to “More on Jobless Claims”

  1. Gary Says:

    that would explain it.

    Reply

    Art Reply:

    It’s typical to have a steep drop in mid-late July. We won’t know until at least Sept-Oct what the prevailing trend is.

    http://symmetrycapital.net/index.php/blog/2011/07/initial-claims-nice-print-but-uncertain-outlook/

    Reply

    Art Reply:

    Sorry – we won’t know whether there’s been a break in the prevailing trend (which is currently higher/negative).

    Reply

  2. Ryan Says:

    State and local tax collections, except property taxes, are rebounding according to the Nelson Rockefeller Institute. This should, hopefully put an end to the mass layoffs in that sector.

    Reply

    Art Reply:

    @Ryan,

    I wouldn’t bet on it:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=SLDEF

    This seems to be a story that the headlines are consistently getting wrong (or I am!).

    Reply

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