It doesn’t matter what OPEC decides with regard to increases.
The only ones with excess capacity, for all practical purposes, are Saudis.
The others have always pumped all they could and let the Saudis be the swing producer.
Historically, the hard part has been to get anyone other than the Saudis to cut production when the Saudis needed help to keep a floor under prices. Invariably the others would cheat and produce to capacity, letting the Saudis carry the burden of reduced sales.
In any case, the Saudis will continue to post their prices to their refiners and fill any and all orders at those posted prices.
And the rest of OPEC will likely keep producing at near max levels.
And most expect Lybia to be back on line in a few weeks or so, in which case Saudi production will ‘automatically’ fall back.
June 8 (Reuters) — OPEC talks broke down on Wednesday without an agreement to raise output after Saudi Arabia failed to convince the cartel to lift production.
Secretary General Abdullah El-Badri said the effective decision was no change in policy and that OPEC hoped to meet again in three months time. No date has been set for another meeting.
“Unfortunately we are unable to reach a consensus to reduce or raise production,” El-Badri told reporters.
Gulf Arab delegates said Iran, Venezuela and Algeria refused to consider an output increase. Non Gulf delegates said Saudi Arabia had proposed an increase on top of April supplies that was too high for them to contemplate.