High-Freq Data/Fed/Call Centers


Karim writes:

  • ABC survey improved by 2pts this week, and 5pts over past 2 weeks; Still in range of past 2yrs.
  • MBA refi index up 17.1% this week


New Purchase index down a tad but remains reasonably flat after correcting when the home buying credit expired.

Yesterday, Minny Fed President Kocherlakota talked about last week’s FOMC:

“The FOMC’s decision has had a larger impact on financial markets than I would have anticipated. My own interpretation is that the FOMC action led investors to believe that the economic situation in the United States was worse than they, the investors, had imagined. In my view, this reaction is unwarranted. I would say that there is no new information about the current state of the economy to be learned from the FOMC’s actions or its statement.”

Agreed. Q2 earnings good with Q2 gdp probably around 1%. Q3 GDP estimates still around 2.5% should be good further support earnings.

Modest growth not enough to bring down unemployment for a while, good for stocks however.

This was my interpretation but nice to hear an FOMC member say so.

And this from page 1 of today’s FT:

Call centre workers are becoming as cheap to hire in the US as they are in India, according to the head of the country’s largest business process outsourcing company.

Link

All above reasonably positive news…..

Yes, for stocks.
But not if you are a call center worker, or anyone else looking for a job…

Japan’s sector balances

I suggest we be careful about letting our deficit get too small like Japan did should our economy begin to recover.
And if we do, I suggest we stand ready to reverse any decline in the deficit immediately should things begin to turn south.

The right size deficit is the one that coincides with full employment.
And it’s the same size deficit that coincides with ‘net savings desires’ for that currency.

This varies from nation to nation, and also over time with changing financial conditions.