Karim writes:
Not a game changer in my view and doesn’t compel the Fed to change course next week.
Private sector gradually churning out jobs; hours, wages, and diffusion index ok.
- Private payrolls up 71k after avg of 41k of prior 2mths but well off highs of 200k avg of Feb and Mar
- UE rate stays at 9.5%
- Hours up 0.3% and wages up 0.2%
- Diffusion index up to 55.6 from 55.2
- Median duration of unemployment down from 25.5 to 22.2
- U6 measure unch at 16.5%
- Job growth accelerates in manufacturing and retail; weakens in temp services and leisure/hospitality
Yes, which means it remains a good market for stocks.
High unemployment is good for cost control and helps keep the Fed on hold. And 0 rates remain a deflationary influence as well.
Top line growth is modestly positive growing by productivity increases plus some hours and employment gains.
Earnings trend remains positive with productivity gains, some top line growth, and a loose labor market.
All supported by a federal deficit that still exceeds 8% of gdp.
Tough political environment with most of the real wealth going to the top as unemployment remains near the highs.