Bullard/Fed


Karim writes:

Bullard

  • Definitely out there on his own. FRB would certainly not communicate policy shift through him
    • Also, everyone has different reasons why QE works. Most of the Fed leadership thinks just via interest rate channel and announcement effect. Bullard thinks through monetary channel, which makes him a minority.

GDP Data: Something for everyone; capex recovery intact; consumer spending sluggish; net exports a large drag; inventories an offset

  • Annualized gwth at 2.4%; Q1 revised from 2.7% to 3.7%; Prior data revised lower
  • Private consumption 1.6% vs 1.9% in Q1; Investment up 28.8% vs 29.1% in Q1
  • Business capex (equipment and software spending) up 21.9% vs 20.4% in Q1
  • Residential fixed investment (housing) up 21.9% (aided by expiring tax credit)
  • Exports and imports both up in double digits, but net exports a drag on growth of -2.78%
  • Inventories contribute 1.05%

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