State tax revenue increasing

This is another sign of growth creeping in.

The States will be fine with a bit more GDP growth, and if they maintain their equity allocations their pension funds will all recover when equity prices double over the next few years.

With strong productivity growth throughout the recession, there is a lot of catch up down the road as the ongoing 8%+ deficits fill the spending gaps and restore the financial equity that will also support a subsequent credit boom that begins with the ‘get a job buy a car’ accelerator.

Unfortunately we still haven’t addressed our energy consumption issues, and we remain highly vulnerable to arbitrary Saudi price hiking.

Nor have we taken sufficient measures to be able to grow GDP without a substantial corresponding increase in energy consumption in general.

But that’s another story, at least for the near term.


Tax Revenue Creeps Up, but Can’t Fill State Budget Gaps

July 27 (Reuters) – State tax revenue is improving, but only slightly, and may not be enough to end steep spending cuts or replace the loss of assistance from the federal stimulus plan that expires in December, according to a report Tuesday.

The National Conference of State Legislatures said states faced a collective budget gap of $83.9 billion when creating their budgets for fiscal 2011, which for most began on July 1.

Officials surveyed by the group, which represents state lawmakers, said revenue was beginning to pick up or at least slow its rate of decline. Nearly every state expects tax collections this fiscal year to surpass last year’s.

“For the first time in a long time we’re seeing some slight improvement in the state revenue situation,” Corina Eckl, the NCSL’s fiscal program director, said in a statement accompanying the report. “But glimmers of improvement are tarnished by looming problems.”

EU Daily | European Loan Growth Accelerated in June as Economy Recovered

As previously discussed, the recovery looks real to me, firmly supported by very high public sector deficits, and the implied support of the ECB which continues to stand by to fund the banking system as well as to buy national govt debt in the secondary markets as needed.

Yes, there are downside risks from external shocks and from future fiscal consolidation, but there are also offsetting upside risks to forecasts as well.

EU Headlines:

European Loan Growth Accelerated in June as Economy Recovered

EU Tests Get Positive Response From Finance Firms, BofA Says

Basel Committee Agrees New Bank Capital Rules

Germany Refuses to Sign Parts of New Basel Accord, WSJ Says

Germany warned of ‘big challenges’ ahead

German consumer confidence up strongly

Spanish Debt Costs Fall in First Auction Since Stress Tests