Interesting how years of 0 rate policies don’t seem to generate inflation.
Data in past week (retail sales, Empire survey, claims, PPI, CPI) continues to show best of both worlds—economy improving and inflation very low.
Initial claims drop another 5k to 457k.
- CPI unch on headline basis and +0.053% on core.
- Core now 1.3% y/y and has a couple more mths of favorable base effects that should allow it to fall below 1%.
- Core inflation running 0.1% on a 3mth annualized basis!
- OER (unch) continues to hold down the series with apparel (-0.7%) the only notable outlier this month.