Obama Meets Asian Bankers Who May Call His Loan


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Keeps getting worse, as we think we need them and continue to kowtow to their demands:


Obama Meets Asian Bankers Who May Call His Loan: William Pesek

By Deborah Solomon and Jonathan Weisman

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — Global recession. Free trade. Security. Climate change. Afghanistan. Iraq. North Korea.

Barack Obama sure has lots to discuss on his maiden voyage to Asia as U.S. president. Yet all this is just conversation compared with the real issue on Asia’s mind: a wobbly dollar that’s putting the region’s money at risk.

Think of this trip as a visit to America’s banker, and an unpleasant one. Asia wants assurances that the U.S. can repay its fast-mounting debt and prevent a dollar crash. The reality dawning on Asia is that Obama can’t offer them such a pledge — not with U.S. borrowing so out of control.


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White House Aims to Cut Deficit With TARP Cash


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Analogy-

You own a house with a mtg on it.
You sell your house and give the money to the bank at the closing.
The bank officers have a meeting and decide to use that money to pay off the mtg.

Brilliant!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

White House Aims to Cut Deficit With TARP Cash

By Deborah Solomon and Jonathan Weisman

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration, under pressure to show it is serious about tackling the budget deficit, is seizing on an unusual target to showcase fiscal
responsibility: the $700 billion financial rescue.

The administration wants to keep some of the unspent funds available for emergencies, but is considering setting aside a chunk for debt reduction, according to people familiar with the matter.

The funds do not add to the deficit until after they are spent

This is total accounting nonsense.

A remake of the Clinton plan to have a trust fund for the deficit, which never made it past the empty rhetoric stage.

It is also expected to lower the projected long-term cost of the program — the amount it expects to lose — to as little as $200 billion from $341 billion estimated in August.

A $210 billion surplus in TARP funding could be used to reduced the U.S.’s towering national deficit. WSJ’s Deborah Solomon says the move follows criticism of the Obama administration’s approach to debt. The idea is still a matter of debate within the administration and it is unclear how much impact it would have on the nation’s mounting deficit levels. Still, the potential move illustrates how the Obama administration is trying to find any way it can to bring down the deficit, which is turning into a political as well as an economic liability.

The White House is in the early stages of considering what bigger moves it might make for next year’s budget. The Office of Management and Budget has asked all cabinet agencies, except defense and veterans affairs, to prepare two budget proposals for fiscal 2011, which begins Oct 1, 2010. One would freeze spending at current levels. The other would cut spending by 5%.

OMB is also reviewing a host of tax changes. The President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board will submit tax-policy options by Dec. 5, including simplifying the tax code and revamping the corporate tax code.

White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is pressing for substantial spending cuts to go with any tax increases to try to avoid the “tax and spend” label that has bedeviled Democrats, according to administration and congressional officials.

The possibility of announcing an exit from Afghanistan with the funds saved to pay down the deficit would be extremely popular short term and contribute to lower GDP and higher levels of unemployment over the medium term.

The administration is constrained in tackling the mounting deficit, since raising taxes or slashing spending could stunt economic growth. Administration officials say the Obama economic team is especially concerned that rapid deficit reduction could hurt the economy.

On the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, the administration is considering a change that may appear to improve the fiscal situation. Agreeing not to spend a certain amount of TARP money will enable the White House, in its budget projections, to assume less money out the door and, therefore, less debt issued.

This is true, but TARP ‘spending’ on bank capital is regulatory forbearance and not ‘spending’ so it shouldn’t be ‘counted’ as deficit spending in any case.

The move would also reduce the deficit by an unknown amount since a certain level of spending and borrowing is already factored into estimated future deficits.

The Treasury Department said about $210 billion in TARP funds remains unspent, including about $70 billion returned from financial institutions. A further $50 billion is expected to be repaid in the next 12 to 18 months.

Budget experts said committing some TARP funds toward debt reduction could help calm concerns about the size and intent of the program. “I don’t necessarily want them to pull back in a huge way, because there’s a lot of uncertainty, but right now what we’ve got could turn into a $700 billion slush fund” for Congress, said Douglas Elliott, a fellow with the Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank.

The move could buy the Treasury Department time before it hits the so-called debt ceiling, which limits the amount of money the U.S. can borrow. Already, some members of Congress have said they won’t approve an increase in the $12.1 trillion debt cap unless efforts to reduce the deficit are included.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, the North Dakota Democrat who is proposing a bipartisan commission, along with Sen. Judd Gregg(R., N.H.), to examine taxes, said he won’t vote for raising the debt limit unless Congress and the administration start talking about cutting spending and increasing taxes.


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Faber on Gold


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He may be right, but for the wrong reason.
Central Banks buying securities and growing their portfolios of financial assets, aka ‘quantitative easing, has nothing to do with inflation or aggregate demand.

However, direct Central Bank purchase of gold do amount to what I call ‘off balance sheet deficit spending’ which does support the price of whatever they buy and can go on indefinitely as a function of political will:

Gold Price Won’t Drop Below $1,000 an Ounce Again, Faber Says

By Zijing Wu

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) — Gold won’t fall below $1,000 an ounce again after rising 27 percent this year to a record as central banks print money to help fund budget deficits, said Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report.

The precious metal rose to all-time highs in New York and London today as the dollar weakened. The Dollar Index, a gauge of value against six other currencies, has declined 7.9 percent this year and today fell to a 15-month low. News last week of bullion purchases by the Indian and Sri Lankan governments raised speculation that other countries would follow suit.

“We will not see less than the $1,000 level again,” Faber said at a conference today in London. “Central banks are all the same. They are printers. Gold is maybe cheaper today than in 2001, given the interest rates. You have to own physical gold.”

China will keep buying resources including gold, he said.

“Its demand for commodities will go up and up and up,” he added. “Emerging economies will grow at the fastest pace.”

In contrast, Western countries will be lucky to avoid economic contraction, while the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates near zero percent, he said.


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Employment


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It is the hangover from the budget surpluses of the late 90’s that drove us to use private sector credit to support demand, first by the dot.com phase of funding impossible business plans, and, after the 2003 proactive deficit policies, the sub prime fraud kicked in with a last burst of private sector credit expansion that pushed it well beyond the limits of the underlying incomes to support it.

The tragedy is how easy it would have been to avoid the entire rise in unemployment, and how easy it is to fix it now:

Payroll tax holiday
Per capita revenue distribution for the states
$8/hr job for anyone willing and able to work

On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 12:48 PM, Russell Huntley wrote:

Rosenberg piece … appears he is using Soss’s analysis.

There are serious structural issues undermining the U.S. labour market as
companies continue to adjust their order books, production schedules and
staffing requirements to a semi-permanently impaired credit backdrop. The
bottom line is that the level of credit per unit of GDP is going to be much, much lower in the future than has been the case in the last two decades. While we may be getting close to a bottom in terms of employment, the jobless rate is very likely going to be climbing much further in the future due to the secular dynamics within the labour market that need to be discussed:

• For the first time in at least six decades, private sector employment is
negative on a 10-year basis (first turned negative in August). Hence, the
changes are not merely cyclical or short-term in nature. Many of the jobs
created between the 2001 and 2008 recessions were related either directly
or indirectly to the parabolic extension of credit.

• During this two-year recession, employment has declined a record 8 million.
Even in percent terms, this is a record in the post-WWII experience.

• Looking at the split, there were 11 million full-time jobs lost (usually we see
three million in a garden-variety recession), of which three million were shifted
into part-time work.

• There are now a record 9.3 million Americans working part-time because they
have no choice. In past recessions, that number rarely got much above six
million.

• The workweek was sliced this cycle from 33.8 hours to a record low 33.0
hours — the labour input equivalent is another 2.4 million jobs lost. So when
you count in hours, it’s as if we lost over 10 million jobs this cycle.
Remarkable.

• The number of permanent job losses this cycle (unemployed but not for
temporary purposes) increased by a record 6.2 million. In fact, well over half
of the total unemployment pool of 15.7 million was generated just in this past
recession alone. A record 5.6 million people have been unemployed for at
least six months (this number rarely gets above two million in a normal
downturn) which is nearly a 36% share of the jobless ranks (again, this rarely
gets above 20%). Both the median (18.7 weeks) and average (26.9 weeks)
duration of unemployment have risen to all-time highs.

• The longer it takes for these folks to find employment (and now they can go on the government benefit list for up to two years) the more difficult it is going to be to retrain them in the future when labour demand does begin to pick up. Not only that, but we have a youth unemployment rate now approaching a record 20%. Again, this is going to prove to be very problematic for employers in the future who are going to be looking for skills and experience when the boomers finally do begin to retire.


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