Comments on: Valance chart

By: Matt Franko

Matt Franko — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:29:37 +0000

For all,
Related to crude import levels and price:
I’ve linked to recent crude import levels here:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wceimus2w.htm
If you look at the last couple of months, I’d estimate that we’re importing about 9M bbls per day avg. (Confess I didnt do the exact math)
Then the net import effect of the $30 ($40 – $70) per bbl run-up we’ve had over the same time period: 9M bbls per day x 30days X $30/bbl = about $8.1B per month or $96B per year annual rate.
So thru some channel, I guess this is crude’s recent contribution to the US account deficit.
This increase, on margin, is enough to service about $1T of external USD denominated debt for a year @ 9.6% or so +/-; in this regard it is probably important to external USD lenders for crude to hold these levels.

Resp,

By: Dave Begoka

Dave Begoka — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:37:00 +0000

I need real low gears in mine so i can still hold it on the revlimiter at 30

By: car Czar

car Czar — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 13:09:55 +0000

Jim, it’s all relative, if you make it smaller than a mazda miata, 30MPH will seem very fast and nimble. We need an Mt900 Mini!

By: Jim Baird

Jim Baird — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:14:24 +0000

I think your plan would be declared unconstitutional, since driving an MT900 at 30mph would constitute “cruel and unusual punishment”…

By: Warren Mosler

Warren Mosler — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:12:50 +0000

yes!

By: Mike S

Mike S — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 11:05:30 +0000

We are going to have nearly 10% unemployment and 20% underemployment. This is not a bankers depression at all. I am unemployed. I consider myself to be a valuable employee who does lots of actual work. There are thousands of people out there who have been out of work for many, many months and are not getting interviews. Many people I know have been called into the office and told they are getting a 20% pay cut.

The fundamentals for oil are pretty strong on the demand side, considering we are in an economic contraction. I do not fully agree with Warren in that I think we are facing peak oil and that the Saudi’s will not be able to fully supply the world once growth resumes.

By: car Czar

car Czar — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 07:22:53 +0000

I think we should nationalize Mosler Automotive. The MT900 is such a lightweight car that gets such good gas mileage, every american citizen should drive one. This will help with our fuel demand. Building all these mt900 to give to all 200 million driving americans will also help employ a lot of laid off autoworkers. Then we can reduce the national speed limit to 30mph! Warren do you support my plan?

By: Warren Mosler

Warren Mosler — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:21:19 +0000

probably not much as daily consumption is 85 million barrels and the amount in such storage is probably only a few days of world supply.

By: Subir Grewal

Subir Grewal — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 20:19:46 +0000

This is a bankers depression. The fundamentals in the essentials remain unimpaired. Only forced liquidation and margin calls can bring down commodities prices.

Another theory to consider, however, is stockpiling and supertankers sitting off the coast. How much does that contribute to this demand?

By: Mike S

Mike S — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 19:39:22 +0000

I should have put an “Unexpected” or “Surprising” in there somewhere. I thought there would have been some demand destruction, but there has been very little apparent from the numbers.