Durable Goods Order/Claims

Karim writes:

Durable Goods Order/Claims

  • Durables goods orders +1.9% headline; -1.5% ex-aircraft and defense (this is the measure used for the private sector capex component of GDP)
  • Defense up 23.2% m/m; here are the prior 3mths for defense orders in 2009 (-11%;+33%;-40%)
  • Shipments ex-defense -0.3%
  • Inventories -0.8% (unexpected as most felt inventory drawdown was over in Q1)
  • Initial claims fall to 623k from 636k (revised up from 631k)
  • Continuing claims up another 110k
  • Data shows economy still contracting; look for range of estimates for Q2 from -2% to -4%

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2 Responses to Durable Goods Order/Claims

  1. RSG says:

    Warren, is the steepening yield curve being orchestrated by the fed to help the banks or there something else going on…additionally is the spike up in agency mbs yields an unintended consequence, surely the fed must know they can control rates across the curve.


    Mike S Reply:

    They are going to issue a few trillion, plus somewhere north of 20% of all U.S. treasury debt needs to be rolled this year. I think this explains the steepening yield curve.


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