Personal interest income in free fall

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Looks to me like this is going to be a strong headwind for a while, that is offsetting some of the fiscal expansion. It should be a ‘good thing’ as it means tax cuts and/or increased government spending is in order, but that’s not in the cards.

The non government sectors are large net savers to the tune of the cumulative government budget deficit spending.

Savers are continuously getting recouponed lower as fixed rate CD’s, tsy secs, etc. mature. This reduces aggregate demand.

Borrowers are helped some but not as much as borrowing rates remaining high due to the price of risk.

Net interest margins for banks and other lenders remain high and are drains on aggregate demand as banks are not spending their operating profits on goods and services, but instead adding to reserves.

Personal Income Graph


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