Karim writes:
Falling wage and salary income and rising savings rate continuing to take a toll on consumer spending.
Recent pick-up in gas prices also likely hurting discretionary spending.
- April retail sales -0.4% and -0.5% ex-autos (expectations +0.2%)
- March ex-autos revised from -0.9% to -1.2%
- April, Ex-gas, -0.2%
- April, Control group (feeds into PCE component of GDP), -0.3%
- Need a very sharp rebound in May/June to prevent Q2 PCE from being negative due to combined March/April weakness.
- Downside risks to Q2 GDP now as low as -5%
Import prices up 1.6%, -0.4% ex-petroleum and -0.5% from China
- MBA Mortgage Applications (Released 7:00 EST)
- MBA Purchasing Applications (Released 7:00 EST)
- MBA Refinancing Applications (Released 7:00 EST)
- Bloomberg Global Confidence (Released 7:00 EST)
- Import Price Index MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- Import Price Index YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Released 8:30 EST)
- Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Released 8:30 EST)
- Advance Retail Sales MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- Advance Retail Sales YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- Retail Sales Less Autos (Released 8:30 EST)
- Business Inventories MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
- Business Inventories YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
MBA Mortgage Applications (May 8)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -8.6% |
| Prior | 2.0% |
| Revised | n/a |
MBA Purchasing Applications (May 8)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 265.70 |
| Prior | 264.30 |
| Revised | n/a |
MBA Refinancing Applications (May 8)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 4588.60 |
| Prior | 5169.30 |
| Revised | n/a |
Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | 38.72 |
| Prior | 21.20 |
| Revised | n/a |
Import Price Index MoM (Apr)
| Survey | 0.6% |
| Actual | 1.6% |
| Prior | 0.5% |
| Revised | 0.2% |
Import Price Index YoY (Apr)
| Survey | -16.8% |
| Actual | -16.3% |
| Prior | -14.9% |
| Revised | -15.3% |
Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Apr)
Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Apr)
Advance Retail Sales MoM (Apr)
| Survey | 0.0% |
| Actual | -0.4% |
| Prior | -1.1% |
| Revised | -1.3% |
Advance Retail Sales YoY (Apr)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -10.1% |
| Prior | -9.6% |
| Revised | n/a |
Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)
| Survey | 0.2% |
| Actual | -0.5% |
| Prior | -0.9% |
| Revised | -1.2% |
Business Inventories MoM (Mar)
| Survey | -1.1% |
| Actual | -1.0% |
| Prior | -1.3% |
| Revised | -1.4% |
Business Inventories YoY (Mar)
| Survey | n/a |
| Actual | -4.8% |
| Prior | -3.6% |
| Revised | n/a |
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