Posted by WARREN MOSLER on April 20th, 2009
Right, seems the eurozone is toast until the rest of the world recovers and starts importing from them of their deficits get high enough via recession- the ugly way- without the national governments and banks defaulting.
Trying to keep deficits from rising with tax hikes only means the economy goes down more as it seeks the necessary higher level of deficit spending for recovery.
A tall order but not impossible.
by Paul Krugman
Apr 19 (New York Times) — ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…â€œWhat,ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â asked my interlocutor, ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…â€œis the worst-case outlook for the world economy?ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â It wasnÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢t until the next day that I came up with the right answer: America could turn Irish.
WhatÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s so bad about that? Well, the Irish government now predicts that this year G.D.P. will fall more than 10 percent from its peak, crossing the line that is sometimes used to distinguish between a recession and a depression.
But thereÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s more to it than that: to satisfy nervous lenders, Ireland is being forced to raise taxes and slash government spending in the face of an economic slump ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Â policies that will further deepen the slump.