Monthly Archive:: April 2009

Re: financial market outlook

[Skip to the end] >    >   On Thu, Apr 30, 2009 at 7:01 AM, Joshua wrote: >    >   The 82-83 Reagan rally was good for roughly 70% to the upside from trough to >   peak. I clearly have been too pessimistic. >    >   At this point, are you looking for substantial upside in equities from here ...Read More

China allowing state enterprise to invest in Taiwan

[Skip to the end] Cheaper to buy Taiwan than to invade? China Makes First Taiwan Investment as Relations Thaw by Tim Culpan and Janet Ong Apr 30 (Bloomberg) — China Mobile Ltd. agreed to buy 12 percent of Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., the first investment by a Chinese state-owned company in Taiwan ...Read More

Japan industrial output up more than expected

[Skip to the end] The Great Mike Masters Global Inventory Liquidation pretty much ran its course by year end, and now depleted inventories are beginning to be replaced as high and rising government deficits support incomes and savings: Japan’s Factory Output Rises as Twice Predicted Pace by Jason Clenfield Apr 30 (Bloomberg) ...Read More

50 years of housing starts

[Skip to the end] The population was just over 200 million in 1970 vs 300 million today. We went off the gold standard internationally in 1971 as housing took off to population adjusted highs that have drifted ever lower since. Housing is in for a large percentage gain from current levels just ...Read More

2009-04-30 USER

[Skip to the end]   Karim writes: Initial claims -13k to 631k; continuing claims up another 133k (up every week this year) to 6271k Suggests another 650-700k drop in payrolls and rise in ue rate from 8.5% to 9% for April employment report Those numbers will in turn cause the data we ...Read More

Note on quantitative easing

[Skip to the end] Note written by an ‘in paradigm’ associate: Growth in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet indicates that it is acting as a financial intermediary, but it doesn’t say anything useful about real economic activity or prospects for inflation. Even when the Fed buys Treasury debt from the ...Read More

Swine flu: TO BE AVOIDED

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Back from a week off

[Skip to the end] Been away for a week. First impressions: Seems world fiscal responses both automatic and more recently proactive have turned the tide. Looking for a quick return to positive GDP (from very depressed levels) helped by very low inventories in general. But relatively slow returns to ‘normal’ in many ...Read More

2009-04-29 USER

[Skip to the end] MBA Mortgage Applications (Released 7:00 EST) MBA Purchasing Applications (Released 7:00 EST) MBA Refinancing Applications (Released 7:00 EST) GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 8:30 EST) GDP YoY Annualized Real (Released 8:30 EST) GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (Released 8:30 EST) GDP Price Index (Released 8:30 EST) Core PCE QoQ (Released ...Read More

2009-04-28 USER

[Skip to the end] ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Released 7:45 EST) ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Released 7:45 EST) Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Released 8:55 EST) Redbook Store Sales MoM (Released 8:55 EST) ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Released 8:55 EST) S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Released 9:00 EST) ...Read More