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Claims resume their upward marchÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Âinitial up 9k to 654k (prior week revised up 6k)
Yes, but slightly, progressively, lower for the last two weeks.
Continuing claims up a whopping 197k to 5317k, new series high.
Yes, they lag some.
- Initial claims reflect new layoffs and outright income loss; continuing claims reflect longer duration of unemployment and downward pressure on wages/prices.
- Retail sales -0.1% headline and 0.7% ex-autos
- Ex-gas -0.4%
- Prior month revised from 1% to 1.8%
Yes, core retail sales now up two months in a row. January income/spending up as well.
Q1 GDP estimates likely to be revised back to -3% to -5% area from -5% to -7%.
Yes, and with increasing consumption the decline in GDP isn’t sustainable.
And this is before the fiscal adjustments kick in.
Some overnight eco news that caught my eye:
- German industrial production -7.5% m/m in January and -39% y/y
- French employment falls by most in 40yrs in Q4; -117k
- Spanish Core CPI falls to 19yr low in January; 1.6%
- Chrysler threatens to pull out of Canada unless it gets $2.3bn in govt loans and a 25% wage cut from the auto union