Claims/Sales annd Overnight Eco headlines

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Karim writes:

  • Claims resume their upward march—initial up 9k to 654k (prior week revised up 6k)

    • Yes, but slightly, progressively, lower for the last two weeks.

  • Continuing claims up a whopping 197k to 5317k, new series high.

  • Yes, they lag some.

    • Initial claims reflect new layoffs and outright income loss; continuing claims reflect longer duration of unemployment and downward pressure on wages/prices.
    • Retail sales -0.1% headline and 0.7% ex-autos
    • Ex-gas -0.4%
    • Prior month revised from 1% to 1.8%

    Yes, core retail sales now up two months in a row. January income/spending up as well.

  • Q1 GDP estimates likely to be revised back to -3% to -5% area from -5% to -7%.

    • Yes, and with increasing consumption the decline in GDP isn’t sustainable.

    And this is before the fiscal adjustments kick in.

    Some overnight eco news that caught my eye:

    • German industrial production -7.5% m/m in January and -39% y/y
    • French employment falls by most in 40yrs in Q4; -117k
    • Spanish Core CPI falls to 19yr low in January; 1.6%
    • Chrysler threatens to pull out of Canada unless it gets $2.3bn in govt loans and a 25% wage cut from the auto union


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