Galbraith/Wray/Mosler submission for February 25


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This is the paper being presented next week in DC.

Please distribute.

Comments welcome!

This is how it begins:

Comments on the FASB Exposure Drafts relating to “Comprehensive Long-term Projections for the U.S. Government (ED 1)” and to “Accounting for Social Insurance. (ED 2)”



Testimony Submitted by:

James K. Galbraith, Lloyd M. Bentsen, Jr., Chair in Government/Business Relations, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin
TX 78712 and Senior Scholar, Levy Economics Institute.

L. Randall Wray, Professor of Economics, the University of Missouri-Kansas City, and Senior Scholar, Levy Economics Institute.

Warren Mosler, Senior Associate Fellow, Cambridge Center for Economic and
Public Policy, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, and Valance Co., St Croix, USVI.

Date: February 25, 2009

In this testimony we supplement our earlier letter, which responded to specific questions on the first exposure draft. Here we set out general principles of federal budget accounting, and then we offer specific comments on the proposed reporting procedures in both of the exposure drafts.

General Principles of Federal Budget Accounting

Even though some principles of accounting are universal, federal budget accounting has never followed and should not follow the exact procedures adopted by households or business firms. There are several reasons why this is true.

First, the government’s interest is the public interest. The government is there to provide for the general welfare, and there is no correlation between this interest and a position of surplus or deficit, nor of indebtedness, in the government’s books.

Second, the government is sovereign. This fact gives to government authority that households and firms do not have. In particular, government has the power to tax and to issue money. The power to tax means that government does not need to sell products, and the power to issue currency means that it can make purchases by emitting IOUs. No private firm can require that markets buy its products or its debt. Indeed taxation creates a demand for public spending, in order to make available the currency required to pay the taxes. No private firm can generate demand for its output in this way. Neither of these statements is controversial; both are matters of fact. Nor should they be construed to imply that government should raise taxes or spend without limit. However, they do imply that federal budgeting is different from private budgeting, and should be considered in its proper, public context.

While it is common to regard government tax revenue as income, this income is not comparable to that of firms or households. Government can choose to exact greater tax revenues by imposing new taxes or raising tax rates. No firm can do this; even firms with market power know that consumers will find substitutes if prices are raised too much. Moreover firms, households, and even state and local governments require income or borrowings in order to spend. The federal government’s spending is not constrained by revenues or borrowing. This is, again, a fact, completely non-controversial, but very poorly understood.

The federal government spends by cutting checks – or, what is functionally the same thing, by directly crediting private bank accounts. This is a matter of typing numbers into a machine. That is all federal spending is. Unlike private firms, the federal government maintains no stock of cash-on-hand and no credit balance at the bank. It doesn’t need to do so. There are surely limits of wisdom and prudence on federal spending, as well as numerous checks, balances, and self-imposed constraints, but there is no operational limit. The federal government can, and does, spend what it wants.

Tax receipts debit bank accounts. So does borrowing from the public. These are operationally distinct from spending. There is no operational procedure through which federal government “uses” tax receipts or borrowings for its spending. If, perchance, one chooses to pay taxes in cash, the Treasury simply issues a receipt and shreds the cash. It has no need for the income in order to spend. This is why it is a mistake to look at federal tax receipts as an equivalent concept to income of households or firms.

As we discuss below, federal government spending has exceeded tax revenues, with only brief exceptions, since the founding. There is no evidence, nor any economic theory, behind the proposition that federal government spending ever needs to match federal government tax receipts—over any period, short or long. The deficit per unit time is the difference between taxing and spending over that time. To repeat, the taxing on the one hand and the spending on the other are operationally independent. Any reasonable observer should conclude that federal government spending is not, and need not be, dependent on, constrained by (or even related to) tax revenues in the way that the spending of households or firms is related to their incomes.

The difference between microeconomic and macroeconomic accounting is also pertinent. An individual household or firm has a balance sheet that consists of its assets and liabilities. The spending of that household or firm is constrained, in a fairly concrete sense, by its income and by its balance sheet— by its ability to sell assets or to borrow against them. It is meaningful to say that its ability to deficit-spend is constrained: a household must get the approval of a bank before spending can exceed income, and therefore its borrowing is subject to banking norms. But if we take households or firms as a whole, the situation is different. The private sector’s ability to deficit-spend, to spend more than its income, depends on the willingness of another sector to spend less than its income. For one sector to run a deficit, another must run a surplus. This surplus is called saving – claims against the deficit sector. In principle, there is no reason why one sector cannot run perpetual deficits, so long as at least one other sector wants to run surpluses.


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German January tax revenue increases 3.4 percent


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This kind of fiscal drag is highly counterproductive.

German January Tax Revenue Increases 3.4 Percent, Ministry Says

by Rainer Buergin

Feb 20 (Bloomberg) — German tax revenue rose 3.4 percent in January to 39.1 billion euros ($49.6 billion), led by flows to Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck’s federal coffers, the Finance Ministry said in its monthly report.

Intake at federal level increased 8.5 percent to 15.9 billion euros while the country’s 16 states reaped 18.5 billion euros, 2.1 percent more than a year earlier, the report showed. Germany’s budget plans call for a tax revenue increase of 2.1 percent for the year as a whole, compared with 2008.

“The cooling world economy has by now fully impacted on Germany’s domestic economy,” the ministry said. “The worsening of the situation and the outlook for the manufacturing industry” suggest that “the recession will continue.”

Forward-looking economic indicators suggest the German economy will shrink in the first quarter after contracting 2.1 percent in the final three months of last year, a drop that was bigger than expected, the ministry said.


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Chery Unveils Plug-in Hybrid, Trumps GM Volt’s Range


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Good news for cutting crude consumption some day, bad news for GM.

Chery Unveils Plug-in Hybrid, Trumps GM Volt’s Range

by Tian Ying

Feb 20 (Bloomberg) — Chery Automobile Co., China’s largest maker of own-brand cars, unveiled its first plug-in hybrid, touting a range more than twice as far as General Motors Corp.’s planned Volt.

The S18 can travel as much as 150 kilometers (93 miles) using just its batteries, Chery said in a statement posted on its Web site yesterday. GM’s Volt, due to go on sale next year, has a range of 64 kilometers. Chery has no timetable as yet on when the S18 will go on sale, spokesman Jin Yibo said in an interview by phone today.

China has encouraged domestic automakers to develop alternative-energy vehicles to curb oil imports and pollution, as well as to help the local industry challenge GM and Toyota Motor Corp. overseas. BYD Co., the Chinese automaker backed by billionaire Warren Buffett, started selling the world’s first mass-produced plug-in hybrid in December.

The Chinese government plans to support domestic automakers’ research into alternative-energy vehicles in a bid to have 60,000 on the roads of 10 cities by 2012, Science Minister Wan Gang said in November.

Automobiles account for about half of the total oil consumption in China, the world’s largest vehicle market behind the U.S. That may rise to 60 percent by 2020, according to the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Plug-in cars can be recharged from standard household powerpoints. The S18 can be fully charged in as little as four hours and be 80 percent powered via a quick charge at a specialist station in 30 minutes, Chery said.

Subsidies

BYD’s F3 DM can run for 100 kilometers using only batteries. It takes as little as seven hours to fully charge and can be 50 percent powered via a quick charge at a specialist station in 10 minutes.

To help support the development of alternative-energy technologies, the Chinese government plans to give out subsidies of as much as 600,000 yuan ($88,000) per vehicle to public- transport operators and government agencies to help fund purchases of electric, hybrid and fuel-cell automobiles.

Chrysler LLC, the third-largest U.S. automaker, is forecasting sales of battery-powered cars exceeding 100,000 a year by 2013 and GM is counting on selling 60,000 of its first such model in the year after it goes on sale in 2010.

Gasoline-electric hybrids and other electric vehicles made up 2.2 percent of the U.S. market in 2007, according to J.D. Power & Associates, which expects that share to expand to 7 percent by 2015.


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Richard Koo on fiscal policy and interest rates


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Met Richard years ago. Seems he’s still confused on fiscal policy:

Bond issues to fund capital injections will not lead to higher interest rates

Right! The CB sets rates. Too bad he didn’t stop here rather than try to explain the process.

Japan’s second round of capital injections was four times the size of the first, and some question the ability of US capital markets to absorb such a large emission of government debt. However, the 1989 S&L crisis demonstrated that funds raised for the purpose of rescuing the financial sector will not lead to higher interest rates.

True!

This is because, unlike fiscal outlays for public works, money spent to rescue the financial system does not reduce the amount of investment funds available in the financial markets.

Huh???

Assume, for example, that the government issues $100 of Treasury bonds to recapitalize a troubled bank.

And then makes a payment to the bank.

The bank receiving the capital injection would credit its capital account by $100 and then invest that $100. In effect, there will be $100 in the market to be invested regardless of whether the government issues debt to rescue the bank.

The $100 gets credited to the banks account at the CB. The bank can leave it there or look for alternatives.

Purchases of alternatives in the private sector cause the banks $100 to be ‘wire transferred’ to another bank.

That means the bank’s account at the CB is reduced by $100 and another bank’s account at the CB is increased by $100.

Because the $100 represents capital, the bank’s investment should be liquid and easily convertible into cash. The asset that best fills this bill is government securities

Ok.

If the bank decides to buy government debt with the money, the government will have another $100 to fund a capital injection.

I assume he means new government debt as he started with the government issuing $100 of bonds and recapitalizing the bank.

Two rubs.

First:

The government would only issue additional bonds if it wanted to (deficit) spend additional funds.

And it if wanted to issue bonds and (deficit) spend new funds, it would do so whether this particular bank wanted to buy the bonds or not. That is, the bank wanting to buy bonds is not the enabling force for (deficit) spending.

Second:

The sale of the original $100 of bonds reduced total bank reserves by $100 and the payment of the $100 to the bank added $100 to total bank reserves. So the initial bond issue and the recapitalization left bank reserves offset each other leaving total bank reserves unchanged. Institutionally, issuing new bonds starts a new series of transactions, and, again, that particular bank is not the enabling force.

If, on the other hand, the government uses that $100 to build bridges or roads, that money will leave the capital markets and be spent on wages or construction materials, producing a corresponding decrease in the amount of investment funds available.

I don’t follow this distinction at all.

In this case, as before, the Treasury borrowing $100 reduces bank balances at the CB by $100, and the Treasury spending $100 as above adds $100 to bank balances at the CB, leaving total bank balances (reserves) unchanged.

In short, money spent on public works projects leads to higher interest rates because it does not find its way back to the capital markets.

Not the case, interest rates go to where the CB sets them, one way or another.


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2009-02-20 USER


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Consumer Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.8%

 
Karim writes:

CPI boosted by OER and tobacco.

  • m/m .282% headline and .177% core; y/y 0.0% headline and 1.7% core
  • Mthly data boosted by OER (up 0.3%)-likely reflects decline in fuel/utility prices in recent months (which boosts ‘owners equivalent rent’)
  • Mirroring PPI yesterday, tobacco prices up 0.8%
  • Core PCE, which has less weight in housing, has been negative for 3mths in a row. On y/y basis, core inflation likely headed to 1% by mid-year (headline inflation may decline by -1% y/y by mid-year before converging to core in H2).

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CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jan)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Jan)

Survey 211.081
Actual 211.143
Prior 210.228
Revised n/a

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CPI Core Index SA (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 217.265
Prior 216.816
Revised 216.882

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Jan)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Jan)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Jan)


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Deficit spending for dummies


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The media is screaming that deficit spending simply takes money from borrowers and gives it to someone else, so it doesn’t work.

This is NOT the case. In fact, deficit spending ADDS to our total savings of financial assets.

Operationally, this is how $100 billion of deficit spending ‘works’ to ADD to nominal savings of financial assets:

  1. The Treasury sells $100 billion of treasury securities.
  2. Paying for the new securities reduces member bank balances held at the Fed by $100 billion.
  3. And our holdings of treasury securities increase by $100 billion.
  4. Quick recap-

    We buy treasury securities from the government which means we have $100 billion more treasury securities.

    We pay for them which means we have $100 billion less in our bank accounts.

    So far all we have done is exchange bank balances at the Fed for treasury securities, which also held at the Fed.

    So far nothing of economic consequence has changed, apart from now we could be earning more interest on our treasury securities than we had been earning on our Fed balances.

  5. The Treasury spends the $100 billion it got from selling us the $100 billion of new treasury securities.
  6. This increases member bank balances at the Fed by $100 billion.

Final recap:

  • Bank balances are back where they started from.
  • Our holdings of treasury securities, which are financial assets and saving, have increased by $100 billion.

Conclusion and proof:

Government deficit spending of $100 billion necessarily increases savings of financial assets by $100 billion.

Please distribute as widely as possible as a matter of further public purpose!!!


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2009-02-19 USER


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Producer Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.8%
Prior -1.9%
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • PPI up 0.8% and 0.4% core; core boosted by some annual one-offs (prescriptions at 1.1% and tobacco at 0.6%)
  • Pipeline pressures continue to decline; intermediate -0.7% and core intermediate -1.1%; crude -2.9% and core crude 0.1%

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Producer Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey -2.4%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.9%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jan)

Survey 3.8%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.3%
Revised n/a

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Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 14)

Survey 620K
Actual 627K
Prior 623K
Revised 627K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims remain unch at 627k (prior week revised up 4k)
  • Continuing claims up 170k to new cycle high

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Continuing Claims (Feb 7)

Survey 4830K
Actual 4987K
Prior 4810K
Revised 4817K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Feb 14)

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Leading Indicators (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.2%

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Jan)

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Philadelphia Fed (Feb)

Survey -25.0
Actual -41.3
Prior -24.3
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Philly Fed confirms Empire survey earlier this week that rate of decline in manufacturing is accelerating.
  • Headline activity, orders, shipments, and employment all fall sharply

Feb 2009 Jan 2009 Dec 2008 Nov 2008 Oct 2008 Sept 2008 Aug 2008 6 month avg
General Business Activity -41.3 -24.3 -36.1 -39.8 -38.7 1.9 -20.1 -29.7
Prices Paid -13.7 -27.0 -25.5 -26.6 10.2 32.5 53.0 -8.4
Prices Received -27.8 -26.2 -32.8 -11.3 5.0 15.1 25.1 -13.0
New Orders -30.3 -22.3 -28.2 -29.3 -30.6 3.8 -15.2 -22.8
Shipments -32.4 -16.7 -29.7 -19.3 -17.6 -1.3 -6.1 -19.5
# of Employees -45.8 -39.0 -28.6 -23.8 -19.2 -3.2 -4.6 -26.6

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Feb)


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Mosler housing proposal


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My housing proposal:

  1. The government does not interfere with the lawful foreclosure process.
  2. If the former owner wants to remain in the house, the government buys the house during the foreclosure sale period from the bank at the lower of fair market value or the remaining mortgage balance.
  3. The government rents the house to the former owner at a fair market rent.
  4. After 2 years the house is offered for sale and the former owner/renter has the right of first refusal to buy it.

While this requires a lot of direct government involvement and expense, and while there is room for dishonesty at many levels, it is far superior to any of the proposed plans regarding public purpose, including:

  1. Keeping people in their homes via affordable rents
  2. Not interfering with existing contract law for mortgage contracts
  3. Minimizing government disruption of outcomes for mortgage backed securities holders
  4. Minimizing the moral hazard issue
    • foreclosure was allowed to function normally
    • renting at fair market rent is not a subsidy
    • repurchasing option at market price is not a subsidy


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2008 swap line advances as a % of GDP


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Swap lines as % of GDP by CB, year end 2008 (a bit dated now in Feb but anyway FYI).

Swap lines as % of GDP

BANK %S
ECB (16) 2.42%
Swiss 5.11%
BOE 1.07%
BOJ 2.53%
Aussie 2.13%
Sweden 4.87%
Denmark 4.06%
Norway 1.71%
Korea 1.09%

Resp,

Source Federal Reserve Statistical Summary:
“At end-December 2008 swaps outstanding were $553.728 billion: $291.352 billion with the European Central Bank, $25.175 billion with the Swiss National Bank, $33.08 billion with the Bank of England, $122.716 billion with the Bank of Japan, $22.830 billion with the Reserve Bank of Australia, $25 billion with the Bank of Sweden, $15 billion with the National Bank of Denmark, $8.225 billion with the Bank of Norway and $10.350 with the Bank of Korea.”


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Obama sends 17,000 troops to Afghanistan


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One more thing his anti war supports told me was just pre-election talk that’s actually happening.

Feels more like the Carter administration every day.

Obama Sends 17,000 Additional Soldiers to Afghanistan

by Edwin Chen and Roger Runningen

Feb 17 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama signed an order boosting U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan by 17,000 combat and support personnel.

Obama said in a statement that he approved a request for the additional soldiers and Marines made by Defense Secretary Robert Gates and military commanders.

“This increase is necessary to stabilize a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, which has not received the strategic attention, direction and resources it urgently requires,” Obama said in the statement released by the White House.

Pentagon officials were informed of the decision yesterday, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said in Denver, where Obama signed legislation providing $787 billion in tax cuts and spending to stimulate the economy.

The announcement marks the new president’s first significant decision on defense as he seeks to fulfill his campaign promise to shift the focus away from Iraq to Afghanistan as the central front on the battle against terrorists.


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