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Even with lower fuel prices it keeps getting worse.

• ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Released 7:45 EST)
• ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Released 7:45 EST)
• Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Released 8:55 EST)
• Redbook Store Sales MoM (Released 8:55 EST)
• ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Released 8:55 EST)
• Trade Balance (Released 8:30 EST)
• Exports MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
• Imports MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
• Exports YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
• Imports YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
• Trade Balance ALLX (Released 8:30 EST)
• IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Released 10:00 EST)
• Monthly Budget Statement (Released 14:00 EST)
• Monthly Budget Statement ALLX (Released 14:00 EST)

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 13)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-2.20%
Prior	-0.80%
Revised	n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 13)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-2.30%
Prior	1.40%
Revised	n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 13)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-1.90%
Prior	-1.30%
Revised	n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 13)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-2.30%
Prior	-0.60%
Revised	n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 13)

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Trade Balance (Nov)

Survey	-$51.0B
Actual	-$40.4B
Prior	-$57.2B
Revised	-$56.7B

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Exports MoM (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-5.8%
Prior	-2.3%
Revised	n/a

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Imports MoM (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-12.0%
Prior	-1.6%
Revised	n/a

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Exports YoY (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-1.7%
Prior	5.2%
Revised	n/a

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Imports YoY (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-10.6%
Prior	3.9%
Revised	n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Nov)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan)

Survey	44.0
Actual	45.4
Prior	45.0
Revised	n/a

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Monthly Budget Statement (Dec)

Survey	-$83.0B
Actual	-$83.6B
Prior	-$48.3B
Revised	n/a

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Monthly Budget Statement ALLX (Dec)

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The Mosler Palestinian Development Plan has been added to MANDATORY READINGS!

Read it HERE!

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(email exchange)

Yes, as well as this:

Pros Say: German Stimulus ‘Irrelevant’

Jan 13 (CNBC) — The euro remained under pressure Tuesday despite the German government approving a second stimulus package worth $64 billion to help Europe’s largest economy.

Experts tell CNBC the rescue package is “irrelevant” and that the euro will remain under pressure ahead of the European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday.

It’s irrelevant regarding economic recovery, but can accelerate the rate of credit deterioration of the German state.

And the falling euro once again distorts USD exposure as a percentage of capital that is expressed in euros.

>   
>   On Tue, Jan 13, 2009 at 8:01 AM, Dave wrote:
>   
>   France and Italy under performing Germany 5
>   bps today and Greece under performing 12 bps
>   in 10yrs
>   
>   DV
>   

Greeks Bearing Gifts

by John Authers

Jan 12 (FT) - The market fears the Greeks, even when bearing gifts. It is also scared about the Irish and the Spanish.

Greece has always been treated as a peripheral eurozone member, not only in geography. Even before last year’s civil unrest, its bonds traded at a significantly higher yield than those of Germany - showing a higher perceived default risk.

A eurozone country defaulting and leaving the euro is close to an
unthinkable event. But Friday’s news from Standard & Poor’s that Greece and Ireland were on review for a possible downgrade, followed on Monday by Spain, left many thinking the unthinkable.

The spread of Greek bonds over German bunds is 2.32 percentage points, almost 10 times its level of two years ago. Spanish spreads on Monday rose above 90 for the first time. An Intrade prediction market future puts the odds on a current eurozone member leaving the euro by the end of next year at about 30 per cent.

And German default swaps cost nearly 10 times as much as they did not long ago as well.

The euro dropped more than 1 per cent against the dollar within minutes of the Spanish news, and is down 9.8 per cent in the last few weeks.

A crisis over Greece might be the euro’s ultimate “stress test” (to
borrow a phrase from Daniel Katzive of Credit Suisse). If the eurozone
could find a way to deal with a default, that might confirm the euro’s
status as the world’s next reserve currency.

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Gasoline supplies tightening.

RBOB Crack Spread Swap

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(email exchange)

RBOB Crack moving out again as well.

>   
>   On Mon, Jan 12, 2009 at 5:25 PM, David
>   wrote:
>   
>   DJ just reporting 10c jump in gasoline retail
>   w-o-w, pretty big move in % terms (+6%).
>   

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China Dec crude imports at 3.38 mln bpd - source

by Jim Bai

Jan 12 (Reuters) — China’s imported 14.37 million tonnes of crude oil in December, or 3.38 million barrels per day, a source familiar with the data said on Monday.

The rate would be 11.6 percent higher than a year earlier, and 4 percent higher than in November 2008 on a daily basis, according to a Reuters calculation.

The imports would bring China’s annual imports to a record high of 178.89 million tonnes, or 3.58 million barrels per day, a rate 9.6 percent higher than a year earlier.

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