Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 9th January 2009
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From Karim:
Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force:
This measure rose from 12.6% to 13.5% in December. It was 8.7% in December 2007.
As for NFP/UE:
- -524k; net revisions -154k
- Unemployment rate rises from 6.8% to 7.2%
- Hours fall another 1.1% (negative for production and a precursor to more layoffs)
- Average duration of unemployment up from 18.9 weeks to 19.7
- Diffusion index down from 27.2 to 25.4
- Manufacturing (-149k), construction (-101k), temp help (-81k) and retail (-67k) lead the way lower.
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Posted in Karim | 2 Comments »
Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 9th January 2009
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(email exchange)
Thanks, Dave, as we thought, the ECB isn’t involved. The CB is an arm of the national government, so, when they do sell the excess securities, the government is then and thereby funded without ECB involvement of any kind. A more serious ‘failure’ would be when the dealers won’t/can’t buy the excess from the CB.
>
> Warren,
>
> In terms of Germany’s failed auction, the
> German Central Bank at their discretion will call
> up one of leading primary dealers and sell the
> bonds they bought at the auction directly to
> the dealer. According to ML, they hold bonds
> back in every auction so they have quite a bit
> of flexibility to sell other bonds they hold in
> their portfolio in order to meet the auction
> shortfall if necessary. I am getting some
> history for the last year on German auction
> results and will pass it along when I get it.
>
>
> On Fri, Jan 9, 2009 at 8:13 AM, Dave wrote:
>
> Average amount of bonds bought by German
> Central Bank (BBK) over last 12-15 auctions:
>
> 2yr: 1.2 bb vs. average announced
> issue size of 7.2 bb, 17%
> 5yr: 0.7 bb vs. average announced issue
> size of 5.3 bb, 13%
> 10yr: 1.5 bb vs. average announced issue
> size of 6.7 bb, 22%
> 30yr: 0.7 bb vs. average announced issue
> size of 5.1 bb, 14%
>
> Bonds were bought by BBK at every one of
> these auctions and for each maturity
>
> The 2yr auction has failed total bids
> (announced issue size) 2x in the last 13
> auctions, the 5yr has failed 2x in the last 15
> auctions, the 10yr auction has failed 5x in the
> last 11 auctions (note that the last 2 auctions
> have failed), and for the 30yr 3x in the last 12
> auctions.
>
> DV
>
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Posted in Email, Germany | 4 Comments »
Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 9th January 2009
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Thanks!
The ratings agencies could be the catalyst that destabilizes finance for the eurozone national governments, driving up spreads, rates, and ultimately, the ability limiting their ability to fund at any cost.
Downgrades can also do the same for banks in the eurozone.
This would come as a surprise as downgrades of Japan, for example, didn’t alter their ability to issue JGBs as if they were still AAA.
Meanwhile, eurozone economic performance seems to be worsening by the day, as the lack of aggregate demand takes its toll.
>
> On Fri, Jan 9, 2009 at 7:30 AM, Dave wrote:
>
> One bit of news explaining why there 3yr bond
> came at L+90 when Austria also a AAA rating
> came at L+15
>
> DV
>
*S&P CUTS REPUBLIC OF IRELAND OTLK FROM STABLE TO NEGATIVE
*S&P CUTS REPUBLIC OF IRELAND OTLK FROM STABLE TO NEGATIVE
*S&P: IRELAND OTLK TO NEG ON CONCERNS ABOUT PUBLIC FINANCES
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Posted in Email | No Comments »
Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 9th January 2009
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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
| Survey |
-525K |
| Actual |
-524K |
| Prior |
-533K |
| Revised |
-584K |
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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Dec)
| Survey |
n/a |
| Actual |
-2589K |
| Prior |
-2024K |
| Revised |
n/a |
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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Dec)
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Unemployment Rate (Dec)
| Survey |
7.0% |
| Actual |
7.2% |
| Prior |
6.7% |
| Revised |
6.8% |
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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Dec)
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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Dec)
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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec)
| Survey |
-100K |
| Actual |
-149K |
| Prior |
-85K |
| Revised |
-104K |
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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Dec)
| Survey |
n/a |
| Actual |
-5.9% |
| Prior |
-4.6% |
| Revised |
n/a |
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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Dec)
| Survey |
0.2% |
| Actual |
0.3% |
| Prior |
0.4% |
| Revised |
n/a |
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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Dec)
| Survey |
3.6% |
| Actual |
3.7% |
| Prior |
3.7% |
| Revised |
3.8% |
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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Dec)
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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Dec)
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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Dec)
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Average Weekly Hours (Dec)
| Survey |
33.5 |
| Actual |
33.3 |
| Prior |
33.5 |
| Revised |
n/a |
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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Nov)
| Survey |
-0.7% |
| Actual |
-0.6% |
| Prior |
-1.1% |
| Revised |
-1.2% |
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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Nov)
| Survey |
n/a |
| Actual |
6.3% |
| Prior |
7.9% |
| Revised |
n/a |
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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Nov)
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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Nov)
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Posted in Daily | No Comments »
