Daily Archive: Wednesday, January 7, 2009


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: 1st attempt by ADP to ‘sync’ with BLS methodology to more accurately forecast payrolls and avoid persistent large-scale misses of past 2yrs: And the prediction is: -693k About 200k worse than consensus for Friday. [top] ...Read More

Stimulus package

[Skip to the end] (email exchange) >    >   Mauer wrote: >    >   My main worry about the efficacy of the fiscal >   stimulus–aside from the international >   spillovers in case it is not supported by equally >   ambitious fiscal plans elsewhere–is this: >   households that face considerable employment >   uncertainty, and hence about their to future >   income prospects, are ...Read More

Reuters — Russia has cut off all gas to Europe via Ukraine

[Skip to the end] And not long ago they promised not to do this- not nice! ...Read More

Obama and the deficit

[Skip to the end] Obama Says Deficit Likely to Approach $1 Trillion by Julianna Goldman and Roger Runningen Jan 6 (Bloomberg) — President-elect Barack Obama said he expects to inherit a $1 trillion budget deficit and that similar shortfalls are in store “for years to come” as the government grapples with a ...Read More

Fed minutes, cont.

[Skip to the end] Just in case you thought the FOMC understands monetary operations and reserve accounting. (And I didn’t see any discussion on the swap lines to foreign CBs) Participants discussed the potential advantages and disadvantages of setting quantitative targets for bank reserves or the monetary base. Some were of the ...Read More

Fed Minutes

[Skip to the end] Contraction for all of 2009 and core inflation to fall through 2010. In the forecast prepared for the meeting, the staff revised down sharply its outlook for economic activity in 2009 but continued to project a moderate recovery in 2010. Real GDP appeared likely to decline substantially in ...Read More

2009-01-07 USER

[Skip to the end] MBA Mortgage Applications (Released 7:00 EST) MBA Purchasing Applications (Released 7:00 EST) MBA Refinancing Applications (Released 7:00 EST) Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Released 7:30 EST) Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Released 7:30 EST) Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Released 7:30 EST) Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Released 7:30 ...Read More