ISM


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Karim writes:

Modest improvement from all-time lows

Anecdotals quite weak:

  • “Difficulties with consumer and equity loans resulting from economic slowing.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Business is holding steady in the economic downturn.” (Information)
  • “Sales are okay. Credit from suppliers is becoming an issue even with a perfect payment history. Everyone is scared. Prices for most materials declining rapidly.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “State budgets being reduced, corporate clients cancelling training, and clients not acting swiftly on proposals have brought down the backlog and lowered expectations.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Efforts continue to ramp up to control/reduce spending.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • “There has been an overall decline in business. There have been some price decreases as well. Overall capital spend is significantly lower.” (Accommodation & Food Services)

ISM

Dec. 2008. Nov. 2008
Index 40.6 37.3
Prices Paid 36.0 36.6
New Orders 39.9 35.4
Employment 34.7 31.3
Export Orders 39.5 34.5
Imports 32.5 40.0


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ECB’s Stark bravado


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No mention of the $300 billion they’ve borrowed from the Fed to stay afloat…

ECB’s Stark Says Euro Prevented Worse Crisis Fall-Out, RBB Says

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — The euro has shielded the nations using the single currency from greater fall-out from the financial crisis, European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said in an interview with German radio station RBB.

“The euro has saved us in the euro area from worse economic consequences,” Stark said in the interview broadcast on Jan. 3 and posted on RBB’s Web site.

Before the introduction of the euro 10 years ago, turbulence similar to that experienced last year also led to “considerable tensions” between the European currencies and governments, Stark told the broadcaster. The euro prevented that, he said.

Stark said in the interview that the single currency has been a “large success” and that the ECB has handled its challenges well.


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JN Daily – BOJ on deflation, Japan Car Sales Fall to 28-Year Low


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BOJ Struggling To Find Ways To Combat Deflation

Looks like they got it right:

BOJ Struggling To Find Ways To Combat Deflation (Nikkei) – “We have run out of ammunition,” said a senior BOJ official. “We aren’t sure what we can do now.” BOJ Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa is deeply skeptical about the idea of lowering the interest rate down to zero – a policy the bank adopted once. Shirakawa thinks the approach would be ineffective and detrimental to the functioning of the money market. The central bank is also unwilling to revive the so-called quantitative easing. The central bank says it is not clear that the five years of the BOJ’s quantitative easing from March 2001 really produced expected effects. In particular, many in the BOJ are critical of the bank’s attempt to stimulate economic growth by increasing money supply through setting targets for the reserve account balances commercial banks are required to maintain at the central bank. It is now accepted wisdom at the BOJ that this tactics did not work.

Right!

Slowly coming around to the notion that output and employment are functions of fiscal balance.

Local Govts On The Hook For Y30tln In ‘Hidden’ Liabilities
Toyota Extends Japan Output Suspension By 11 Days
Toyota, Nissan Lead Drop as Japan Car Sales Fall to 28-Year Low

So maybe the problem with the US car industry is the macro economy more so than management issues???

Japan Business Leaders Say Dollar May Trade at 100 Yen in 2009

Maybe they know something about the return of MOF USD purchases?


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2009-01-06 USER


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Speaks for itself.


ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.40%
Prior -1.50%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.60%
Prior -0.50%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 6)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Dec)

Survey 36.5
Actual 40.6
Prior 37.3
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -12.2%
Prior -6.3%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Nov)

Survey -2.3%
Actual -4.6%
Prior -5.1%
Revised -6.0%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Nov)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Nov)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Nov)

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -4.0%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -4.2%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.6%
Prior -3.9%
Revised n/a


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