Monthly Archive:: January 2009

Obama plan

[Skip to the end] A rising criticism is that the Obama proposal has no exit strategy. The Obama proposal IS the exit strategy from falling output and rising employment. The target is the economy. Fiscal policy is the tool to hit the target. The mainstream notion of an exit strategy from budget ...Read More

Japan Data/Outlook

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: In my years of following G7 economies, I have never seen weaker data than we have had in Japan in recent months. Today’s data: Industrial production -9.6% in December (record monthly fall), following up on -8.5% m/m in November and industry projecting -9.1% in January. Moreover, ...Read More

Bank Bailouts have it upside down

[Skip to the end] >    >   On Thu, Jan 29, 2009 at 8:52 PM, Russell wrote: >    Bank Bailout Could Cost Up to $4 Trillion: Economists Jan 29 (Reuters) — Goldman Sachs estimated that it would take on the order of $4 trillion to buy troubled mortgage and consumer debt. That number could ...Read More

2009-01-30 USER

[Skip to the end] GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 8:30 EST) GDP YoY Annualized Real (Released 8:30 EST) GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (Released 8:30 EST) GDP Price Index (Released 8:30 EST) Core PCE QoQ (Released 8:30 EST) GDP ALLX 1 (Released 8:30 EST) GDP ALLX 2 (Released 8:30 EST) Personal Consumption (Released 8:30 ...Read More


[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Surprise dissent from Lacker who would rather buy Treasuries than utilize the current slew of credit programs (didn’t realize there could be dissents as it related to type of non-traditional easing). Other notes: Economy has gotten worse since December Risk of inflation falling and persisting to ...Read More

Brown Says Monetary Policy Is Having Reduced Impact in U.K.

[Skip to the end] In fact, lower rates are slowing things down by cutting government interest payments, and thereby requiring a higher fiscal adjustment. Brown Says Monetary Policy Is Having Reduced Impact in UK Jan 27 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the Bank of England’s ability to influence the economy ...Read More

China- crude consumption

[Skip to the end] China’s policy stimulus to spur car sales in year of ox Jan 28 (Xinhua) — Due to bigger-than expected cut in fuel prices at the end of 2008 and halved car purchase taxes in effect just before the Lunar New Year, China’s auto industry can expect the year ...Read More

Goodhart, Crockett on UK mortgage rules

[Skip to the end] First a brief discussion of what the public purpose might be for the banking sector: In early American non monetary farming communities the community would come together to build one home at a time until each member had a house. Working together like this was more efficient than ...Read More

2009-01-29 USER

[Skip to the end] Durable Goods Orders (Released 8:30 EST) Durable Goods Orders YoY (Released 8:30 EST) Durables Ex Defense MoM (Released 8:30 EST) Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Released 8:30 EST) Durable Goods ALLX (Released 8:30 EST) Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST) Continuing Claims (Released 8:30 EST) Jobless Claims ALLX (Released ...Read More

Fed balance sheet

[Skip to the end] With the Fed balance sheet at just over $2 trillion and an average coupon of maybe 3% that means they are removing about $60 billion a year of interest income from the non government sectors. So while I do think lower long term rates serves public purpose, I ...Read More